Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Sunday, 13 April 2025

The Observer view on British Steel: saved for now, but for how long?

The UK’s last two remaining blast furnaces have hovered on the brink of shutting down over the past week. It has emerged that Jingye, the Chinese owner of Scunthorpe-based British Steel, was poised to refuse to buy further supplies of the coke and iron ore required to keep them running ...

 Story by Observer editorial 14h • 4 min read

... at which point it would not have been possible to restart them; effectively, a unilateral decision to put an end to Britain’s capacity to produce primary steel. 

In these circumstances, the government had no choice but to recall parliament for an emergency sitting to pass legislation to give business secretary Jonathan Reynolds the power to direct British Steel.

The British Steel site in Scunthorpe, owned by the Chinese conglomerate Jingye.
© Photograph: Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images

The UK is starting from a low steel-producing base: it produced just 7.2m tonnes in 2021, compared with 13.9m tonnes in France, 24.4m tonnes in Italy and 40.1m tonnes in Germany. If British Steel were to shut its furnaces, this would leave the UK as the only G7 nation without primary steel-making capacity, with significant economic and security consequences. 

A range of industries rely on steel: construction, defence, transport, green energy. Without British-produced steel, global giant ArcelorMittal would attain what the defence thinktank Rusi has described as a “virtual monopoly” in the production of structural steel building frames for the UK market. Network Rail sources about 95% of its track from Scunthorpe. Parts of the defence industry are heavily reliant on British-produced steel; 90% of the steel used in Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers was produced by Tata Steel at Port Talbot, for example.

There would be significant risks if UK industry were to become wholly reliant on steel imports, in a world characterised by increasing instability and the trade protectionism of Donald Trump’s White House. Europe may be considered a reliable trading partner, but the steel tariffs imposed by the US, combined with pressures for increased defence capability as the US goes cold on Nato, means the UK may not be able to count on sufficient supply from our European allies.

So the government had to intervene in this way: to let the furnaces in Scunthorpe go out would have been not only to lose thousands of jobs, affecting the community, but to put Britain’s security at risk. 

The power to direct British Steel does not amount to nationalisation, but this seems an all-but-certain outcome, given the situation with Jingye. It could end up costing the British taxpayer dear, but the risks of not maintaining domestic primary steel production would be even more costly.

There has been a complete lack of strategy for nurturing competitive British companies and removing barriers to their growth

It is far from ideal that ministers have found themselves in this situation, and for that governments of both colours over decades bear responsibility. The history of British steel-making has been lurching from crisis to crisis: the Scunthorpe furnaces were sold by Tata Steel to the private equity fund Greybull Capital in 2016, which left just three years later. The only buyer on the market was Jingye, which Boris Johnson, the then prime minister, saw as a more palatable option than closure or nationalisation. 

No government has set out a long-term strategy for maintaining British primary steel-making capacity, including realistic plans for decarbonisation, given it is a huge polluter. While steel producers in France and Germany have been relatively protected from high wholesale energy costs through government intervention, UK producers have been paying up to 50% more for electricity, a huge input cost into steel-making, than their competitors from these countries; Conservative business secretaries never addressed this asymmetry. The last government could also have done more to increase the market for low-carbon steel through regulation. It is an all-too-common aspect of British industrial policy: a complete lack of long-term strategy for nurturing competitive British companies and removing barriers to their growth.

There is a risk that, without a broader strategy for British Steel, the government nationalises the Scunthorpe furnaces in a way that will drain billions of taxpayer funds but is not part of a sustainable strategy for the future of primary steel-making in the UK.

 That needs to be the priority once the immediate crisis is averted. But the business secretary needs to learn the broader lessons of this sorry saga for industrial policy across the board. 

The UK is in a precarious position economically: long-term structural issues including low productivity growth and business investment and stagnant living standards have been compounded by the pandemic, by the energy crisis and by the global instability created by Trump’s tariffs policy. Britain’s long-term growth potential has been harmed irrevocably through Brexit and the erection of significant trading barriers with our largest and closest trading bloc.

We are living in a world in which Britain has declining economic and diplomatic agency. It is more important than ever to limit our dependence on other countries, including China, for the production of materials of strategic importance. 

The government deserves praise for taking swift action to prevent its primary steel-making capacity from being shut down. But that’s the easy bit: the much more difficult question is whether it’s possible to improve the competitiveness of British Steel in the medium term, while decarbonising, in a way that ensures the future of steel-making in the UK without it being forever reliant on huge subsidies from the taxpayer.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/the-observer-view-on-british-steel-saved-for-now-but-for-how-long/ar-AA1CO1Em

Thursday, 13 April 2023

Russia's economy continues to reel as energy revenue and the ruble weaken

  The country's energy revenues tumbled 45% year over year to $19.6 billion as crude prices declined and gas exports sank ...


Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin.Mikhail Klimentyev/AP
  • Russia's oil and gas revenue tumbled by 45% in the first three months of 2023 amid sanctions.

  • Meanwhile, the ruble is coming off its worst week against the dollar in a year.

  • A recent paper said Russia's recession in 2022 was actually twice as bad as official data implied.

As Moscow navigates its second year of its war on Ukraine, the Russian economy continues to stumble with plunging oil and gas export revenues and a weakening currency.

Through the first quarter of 2023, the country's energy revenues tumbled 45% year over year to $19.6 billion as crude prices declined and gas exports sank.

Russia is still shipping out crude and fuel products, but the data suggest the price cap imposed by the US and its allies is having the intended dual-effect of curtailing revenue while keeping products flowing through the market.

Experts previously forecasted that sanctions targeting Russian energy wouldn't spur serious repercussions in overall production volume. Other nations including China and India could still buoy demand, analysts said, and Russian supplies could find a way bypass restrictions and still end up in Europe.

Yet the nation's seaborne exports collapsed in the first week of April, with Bloomberg data showing flows from Russian ports dropped by 1.24 million barrels a day — the steepest weekly decline since mid-December.

Alongside the drop in energy revenue, spending surged 34% to $99 billion as the costs to wage war on Ukraine pile up. That led to a $29 billion first-quarter budget deficit, reversing sharply from a year-ago surplus of $14 billion.

Meanwhile, the ruble is coming off its worst week against the dollar since April 2022, falling more than 5% by Friday.

The deterioration at the start of 2023 follows indications that Russia's recession in 2022 was much worse than official data showed.

Stripping away military spending from GDP figures, the country saw a downturn twice as bad as domestic figures imply, wrote Adrian Schmith and Hanna Sakhno a paper for the Centre for Economic Policy and Research in February.

"[The data] currently points to a further loss of momentum driven by stagnating real estate prices and lower business activity in recent months, which is not yet fully reflected in the official data releases," the authors wrote.

That adds to bleak views about the Russian economy as war and sanctions weigh on its long-term prospects.

Economist Konstantin Sonin said Russia faces the same fate of the Soviet Union.

"Everything that is happening makes the Russian economy more primitive, more backwards," he told Russian news outlet Novaya Gazeta. "This makes backwardness and primitivism more persistent."

Read the original article on Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-economy-continues-reel-energy-211945356.html

Monday, 10 October 2022

Liz Truss forces Department for Education into embarrassing climbdown over China policy

 Liz Truss forced the Department for Education into an embarrassing climbdown over China policy ...


·4 min read
In this article:
Liz Truss - Reuters
Liz Truss - Reuters

Liz Truss forced the Department for Education into an embarrassing climbdown over China policy when it issued a surprise statement backing the controversial Confucius Institutes.

A Departmental source had told The Telegraph that China is a “leading member of the international community” when the Department defended the Chinese centres in universities.

In a furious backlash, Conservative MPs told Liz Truss to “put her money where her mouth is” on China and overrule the Department.

The Prime Minister on Sunday ordered the Education Secretary Kit Malthouse to revise his Department’s language on China following the backlash. Downing Street and the Foreign Office required the Department to issue a revised statement, The Telegraph was told.

A Government spokesman said: “The Prime Minister’s determination to stand up to China is unwavering and the UK government is committed to doing more to adapt to China’s growing impact.”

He added: “As with any international collaboration, universities have a responsibility to ensure that any partnership with a Confucius Institute is managed appropriately and the right due diligence is in place. We would encourage any providers with concerns to contact the government.”

The 30 institutes were set up in partnership with the Chinese Government to deliver culture and language classes. However, a report by the Henry Jackson Society found that the vast majority are engaged in other activities, from political lobbying to expanding China’s reach into advanced manufacturing. Researchers also alleged that staff at some institutes in the UK are having their political views and ethnic backgrounds filtered by Chinese officials.

In an initial response to the report, a Department for Education source had said: “China is a leading member of the international community, and we have a strong and constructive relationship with China in many areas.”

'Openness and freedom of expression'

A spokesperson for the Department had said that the institutes are “required to operate transparently and with a full commitment to our values of openness and freedom of expression.” The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Bill, which is currently passing through Parliament, “addresses concerns about the possible influence of overseas money in English Higher Education whilst ensuring that lawful freedom of speech is supported to the fullest extent,” the spokesperson added.

The U-turn came after Sir Iain Duncan-Smith, the former Conservative leader who is running to become the next chairman of the foreign affairs select committee, said: “If Liz Truss wants to be tougher on China, then let her put her money where her mouth is. And the first thing you’re going to do is ban bloody Confucius Institutes. Out. All together. Gone.” He said the prime minister must “overrule [her] education department and say that they’re not welcome here.”

He added: “I don’t know who authorised this statement…It’s a shocker really.”

Tim Loughton, a Conservative MP, said a group of MPs has called for an “urgent meeting” with Kit Malthouse over the “deeply disappointing” statement, which he said was “completely out of line with current Government thinking”.

Kit Malthouse - TOLGA AKMEN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock/Shutterstock
Kit Malthouse - TOLGA AKMEN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock/Shutterstock

Rishi Sunak pledged to ban the institutes, which he said are being used to promote “Chinese soft power”, during his leadership campaign. Ms Truss said she had been much more willing than Mr Sunak to stand up to Beijing.

Bob Seely, another Tory MP, said: “I am a little bit concerned about it, because in some countries Confucius Institutes have been shut down, because they’re a means by which China spies on its students in this country. The Government has made clear its commitment to having a stronger approach to China, and I think Confucius Institutes have to be part of that approach.”

The Government could grant itself the power to ban the institutes via amendments to bills going through parliament including Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Bill and the National Security Bill. In other countries such as Sweden they have been banned. The US has clamped down on Confucius Institutes by restricting funding to any university that hosts them. In 2013, McMaster University in Ontario, Canada, shut down its institute after a lecturer lodged a discrimination complaint that her religious beliefs were being suppressed.

The Chinese embassy has defended the work of the institutes, saying the “educational exchanges between China and the UK” should be seen “in an objective and sensible manner” and “the huge public interest in learning more about Chinese language and culture” should be “respected and recognised”.



Comments

These institutes are well known as being a part of the united workers front. They do alot more than just teach Chinese language and culture. They also monitor Chinese students for Chinese authorities. They spy on students critical of China and even silence debate on China within the Univesities undermining aour freedom of speech and expression.
Blatant Chinese propaganda factories and banning Confucius Institutes from all universities is important to handling Chinese interference and misinformation .

Monday, 19 September 2022

China will be the big winner from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The upside for China will be that as Russia becomes more economically and politically isolated, Beijing will seek to profit from its dilemma, walking a fine line to skirt international condemnation.

John Dobson
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  • https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/world/china-will-big-winner-russias-invasion-ukraine
    A local resident drives past a destroyed Russian armoured personal carrier, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, in the village of Nova Basan, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine. REUTERS

London: If you want to find the most cynical and risible statement made in recent times, look no further than the “Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations…” issued on 4 February this year, the start of the 24th Olympic Winter Games in Beijing. Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping met in closed session just prior to the Games, when Putin assured Xi that he would not attack Ukraine whilst the Games were in progress, so as not to deflect from Xi’s glory in holding the event. Sure enough, just days after the closing ceremony, Russian forces entered the sovereign territory of a neighbour and started an unprovoked war that continues to the present day, with no end in sight.

But back to the Statement. It’s abundantly clear to any neutral observer that Russia and China are two of the most autocratic nations on the planet, yet here’s what they claimed in the document: “The sides (Russia and China) share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common responsibility of the entire world community”. It then goes on to claim that Russia and China have a “rich cultural and historical heritage in democracy, guaranteeing their people to take part through various means”. If you haven’t felt sick by the hypocrisy so far, this will do it: “The sides believe that the advocacy of democracy and human rights must not be used to put pressure on other countries. They oppose the abuse of democratic values and interference (sic) in the internal affairs of sovereign states under the pretext of protecting democracy and human rights”. So, before even the ink was dry, Russia attacked Ukraine under the pretext that it was protecting democracy and human rights from the “neo-Nazis” that were running the country. So much for the principle of non-interference signed by Vladimir Putin, living in his topsy-turvy world of contradictions.

But China, too, is culpable. The invasion was probably not Beijing’s preferred outcome, but now that it’s happened, China has decided to support Russia while leveraging the crisis for its own benefit. The two countries appear to genuinely share a perverted view that the West is the aggressor and that China and Russia are the victims. Just before the invasion, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Hua Chunying, sought to shift the focus from Russian action to American policy, claiming that the US was “the culprit of current tensions surrounding Ukraine”, and that China would not sanction Russia. In using the word “culprit”, Hua illustrated the gradual change over the past twenty years in China’s position on its core principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-interference. By fudging the choice in a haze of sly diplomatic language, Beijing has made it clear that the most decisive element of Chinese policy now is its lean towards Moscow. In making this choice, China appears to have accepted a potential cost in its transatlantic relationships in lieu of the clear cost of breaking with Moscow.

The upside for China will be that as Russia becomes more economically and politically isolated, Beijing will seek to profit from its dilemma, walking a fine line to skirt international condemnation. China relishes being the more powerful state in a lopsided relationship with Russia, one which turns their early Cold War experience on its head. Three decades ago their two economies were the same size; now China’s is ten-times larger than Russia’s. Xi Jinping is therefore happy to provide Vladimir Putin the public symbolism of equal partnership, as long as he wins on the material benefits.

From the time Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia’s reliance on China has grown in proportion to its isolation from the US, Europe and the democracies in Asia, especially Japan. When the West first imposed sanctions in 2015, bilateral trade between Russia and China began to grow to the point where it has more than doubled. Western sanctions, the punishment for the war, will almost certainly make Putin even more pliable towards Xi. As you read this, Chinese officials will be drawing up a wish list while the war progresses, the most obvious being a demand for even more discounts for Russian energy supplies as Moscow’s energy weapon turns on itself with fewer European buyers. Beijing will not be bothered that it cannot backfill for all Russia’s lost trade. That’s Russia’s problem.

An immediate challenge for both China and Russia will be to further isolate themselves against sanctions by pursuing workarounds for the SWIFT payments system. Many experts were alarmed by the decision to push Russia out of SWIFT, except for energy-related transactions, as they believed it would simply drive them into Chinese payments platforms, thereby weakening SWIFT by making it less important globally. This could also jeopardise the world dominance of the dollar, with trade fragmenting into smaller currency blocs. China already has an alternative to SWIFT, called CIPS, which is used to clear transfers in Chinese renminbi. So, if Russia turns to CIPS for non-energy transactions, and China allows this game-changer, how long would it be before it also uses it for energy-related transactions? This would mean that many in Europe would have to adopt CIPS alongside SWIFT, increasing the dominance of renminbi transactions in global trade – a potential big win for China.

When America turned its military attention towards Iraq and Afghanistan, a period which consumed Washington’s strategic focus, Beijing considered the time as one of “strategic opportunity”. Policymakers in Beijing who hate the thought of a US rebalance to Asia, are now likely salivating at the thought that the Ukraine war will create another such period. It’s also likely that as a result of its increased reliance on China, Russia will have to display greater deference to Beijing when considering steps that might balance Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific, in particular any high-end arms sales to countries like India. There is also the likelihood that technological cooperation between China and Russia will increase, echoing what happened when US pressure on Huawei turned the company towards Russia. As a consequence, Russia will almost certainly decide to adopt more and more Chinese technological standards, separating itself even further from the West.

This year is a politically sensitive one for China’s leader, Xi Jinping, as he seeks a third five-year term. Russia’s attack on Ukraine presents him with a geopolitical mixed bag, with potential shocks to global financial and energy markets that could add to China’s existing economic headwinds, despite the strategic opportunities the war creates for China. “The longer the fighting drags on, the more it will exhaust Europe, America and Russia, and overall this benefits China”, said a piece on the website China Strategic, recently taken down without explanation. Its authors argued that China should stand by and watch the war, then emerge as a mediator or even a rule-maker in a new order. Others are more wary on the long-term strategic outcome of the war, arguing that as Europe has decided to increase defence spending, it will evolve into a new geopolitical force, more independent from the US, with strategic consequences for China. Some are purely pragmatic; “for the Chinese it’s simple”, they say, “this is not Chinese territory, this is not a Chinese war. Everything on top of that is a cool calculation of what benefits or hurts China – it’s a power-centric world view”.

In many ways, this war is a timely moment for China to consolidate the political slogan conceived by senior Communist Party officials during the pandemic: dongsheng xijiang—“the rise of the East and the descent of the West”. Putin’s Russia is no longer looking to the West, instead becoming the junior partner in a relationship with Xi’s China. By framing the war as the latest example of global disorder provoked by the West, China is carefully constructing a narrative to bring together those countries with long-standing grievances against America into a kind of mutual-protection arrangement, one that will benefit China the most. “If China ditches Russia, it is only a matter of time before America comes after China once more”, said a prominent Chinese geopolitical commentator last week. But whatever the end game, it’s abundantly clear that China stands to be the big winner from a war whose impact will be profound and lasting.

John Dobson is a former British diplomat, who also worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s office between 1995 and 1998. He is currently Visiting Fellow at the University of Plymouth.

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/world/china-will-big-winner-russias-invasion-ukraine