The Brexit election explained: where do we go from here?
•13 Dec 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Ug8nlrLgY
Showing posts with label SDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SDP. Show all posts
Friday, 13 December 2019
13 Dec 2019 Video: Where do we go from here? The Brexit election explained
The Brexit election explained: where do we go from here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Ug8nlrLgY
Sunday, 28 April 2019
Map of landmines - How Brexit might help the Scottish independence quest
EDINBURGH (Reuters) - Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s plans to lead her nation to independence from the United Kingdom have been muddled by Brexit, but the whirlwind at the centre of British politics may yet advance her cause.
APRIL 28, 2019 / 10:07 PM
FILE PHOTO: A Scottish flag flies between British Union Jack flag and European Union flag outside the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, Scotland, Britain, April 24, 2019. REUTERS/Russell Cheyne/File Photo
Brexit has disrupted British politics not least because, while the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, the populations of two of its four nations - Scotland and Northern Ireland - voted to stay.
Since then, Britain’s government has tied itself in knots in failed attempts to win parliament’s approval for a deal to leave the EU, and it is now unclear when, how or even whether it will manage to do so.
“The Brexit debacle has further undermined confidence in the British political system,” said Michael Keating, professor of politics at the University of Aberdeen. “But it matters in Scotland because of this alternative, the independence option.”
In a referendum in 2014, Scots rejected leaving their 300-year-old union with England and Wales by 55 percent to 45.
Sturgeon argues that the changed circumstances of Brexit mean Scots now deserve a fresh choice, accusing the UK of ignoring Scotland’s views on the shape of post-Brexit economic relations with the EU.
Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative-led government, kept in power by Northern Ireland’s small but strongly pro-United Kingdom DUP party, says Scotland’s views have been heard.
But its desire for an independent trade policy after leaving the EU is far from Sturgeon’s preference of a much “softer” Brexit that would at least keep Britain in the EU single market.
SNAP ELECTION?
Many now see the greatest chance of Scottish independence arising if current talks between the Conservatives and the main opposition Labour Party fail to reach a compromise on future relations with the EU.
That may prompt a snap election - which polls suggest Labour might win, but without enough votes to govern alone, giving Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) a kingmaker role.
“The thing that the SNP have above all to hope for is that this government falls, we get a general election, and out of that general election we get a minority government in which they hold the power that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) currently have (as kingmaker),” said John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow.
If Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and May reach a deal, many in Labour, as well as in Sturgeon’s SNP, want a second Brexit referendum to ratify or reject it, with an option of remaining in the EU. But the Labour leader himself has expressed only tepid backing for a second vote.
A senior SNP source said Corbyn was manoeuvring for a general election.
“By not supporting a Brexit deal, he thinks he can force a national election, and that is a bigger prize,” the source said.
That outcome would also favour the SNP.
Since 2014, support for secession has been stuck at 45 percent. But a YouGov poll on Saturday found backing at 49 percent after Sturgeon this week outlined her “Indyref2” plans.
However, even under a Corbyn government, there is no sure way the SNP can “force” the UK parliament to agree a new legal vote on secession, as UK constitutional arrangements demand.
RIPPLE EFFECTS
The SNP’s best bet, as it meets for conference in Edinburgh this weekend, is to drive up public support for secession. A grassroots campaign is already in the offing.
If, eventually, Britain were to reverse Brexit, this would call into question the formal justification for another independence vote, described as a “material change in circumstances” in the SNP’s 2016 policy programme.
Sturgeon this week set out a tentative timescale for a new vote by the end of next year. But has ruled out an illegal referendum, so that, failing approval by London, the 2021 election for Scotland’s devolved parliament seems likely to become a proxy independence vote.
Those at the conference, such as Neil Gillespie, a 53-year-old self-employed electrician, welcome the idea of staying in the EU. But he says that would not remove the need for a new secession vote, because the UK government has shown that it lacks the will or ability to accommodate Scotland’s views.
“I have a lot of customers who voted ‘No’ in 2014 and a huge amount of them have looked at the way Scotland has been treated during Brexit and they have changed their minds,” he said.
Stopping Brexit might delay the debate over power.
“The independence question certainly is not going to go away. But if we were to remain in the EU, we would have more time to think about it,” said Keating, adding that this might mean seeking other ways to enhance the powers of the Scottish parliament.
Keith Brown, deputy leader of the SNP, told Reuters that the chaos in London was helping persuade Scots that independence was a much less “scary” possibility than in 2014.
But he said the UK was at the same time inadvertently giving important lessons on the need to seek consensus: “Like a map of landmines, May has shown us where not to step.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland/map-of-landmines-how-brexit-might-help-the-scottish-independence-quest
Wednesday, 22 November 2017
Don’t let schadenfreude over Angela Merkel’s plight derail Brexit
Late on Monday night, Germany was thrown into a constitutional crisis.
Christian Linder, the leader of the Free Democrat Party (FDP), brought an end to negotiations seeking to form a coalition government.
Wednesday 22 November 2017 4:06am
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| If the EU Commission believes the German predicament is a reason to delay decisions, the UK must walk away (Source: Getty) |
Without a hint of irony, he announced, “it’s better not to govern than to govern badly” – echoing Theresa May, who has been saying of the Brexit negotiations that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
As a lesson in negotiating brinkmanship to get what you want, British politicians of all parties should be looking on and asking themselves, “is it time for us to be walking away?”
While all eyes will this week be on Philip Hammond’s Budget, I wager that within a week the gaze of politicians will be firmly back on the Brexit negotiations, and particularly on how Germany’s domestic difficulty affects the dynamics.
Following the breakdown in talks, there is now a very real prospect of a fresh election in Germany, as all the parties except Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU grouping smell an opportunity to make gains at her expense. If they hold out and refuse to form a coalition government then an election it must be.
Meanwhile, Merkel will remain Chancellor, but German power will be weakened, if only temporarily.
Does this moment of confusion for the EU’s most influential member and largest economy present an opportunity for the UK in the Brexit negotiations? Yes and no.
Yes, because Britain can make the valid point that there are far too many problems facing the EU already: the dark clouds of a looming Italian banking crisis that would spread contagion to France and beyond; the weakness of Eurozone economic growth without the continued supply of QE; the continuing impact of massive immigration, its resulting multicultural change, and the public response of rising tension and support for populist movements.
Would it not make sense for the EU to strike a quick deal with the UK so that economic recovery might continue and minds can be focused on the genuine existential threats? That is the point the UK should be pressing behind the scenes officially, while other proxies might make the point more publicly (and colourfully).
But no, because common sense, self-awareness, and the ability to move quickly have never been the EU’s strengths.
So don’t expect anything to come from trying to pressurise the EU Commission – especially when it will be difficult for Jean-Claude Junker, Michel Barnier and the rest to get an answer out of a Germany that will be otherwise occupied.
In addition, Germany’s weakness will probably result in the French President and arch-integrationist Emmanuel Macron taking more of a leading role. That is not to Britain’s advantage in agreeing the best deal possible.
Furthermore, a new election is not guaranteed to end Germany’s governance crisis and might even exacerbate it. If the anti-immigration Alternative Fur Deutschland wins more seats, as seems likely, the result may in the end be a grand coalition between Merkel’s CDU/CSU and Social Democratic Party, led by former EU parliament president Martin Schulz, also making a deal far more difficult.
Money talks, and I remain relaxed about the UK meeting its financially and legal obligations up until we leave or during a time-limited period of transition.
We can also signal a willingness to go further and identify what new shared investments for education, science and space might be to our benefit – none of which require EU membership.
The MP Owen Paterson is right, however, when he says that we should not send a single penny until the trade deal is finalised, and if it is blocked by the EU parliament, then the EU can go whistle for what is not legally due.
Likewise, foreign bullying has never gone down well among the British people, and if the EU thinks it can withhold our previously negotiated membership rebate, we should reduce our annual payment to the net sum.
So long as we keep to the spirit of the law, the British people will give their support.
Much as it must be tempting after being ridiculed for failing to win an outright majority in the UK’s own General Election, Conservative politicians must ignore any feelings of schadenfreude towards the plight of Chancellor Merkel, the so-called best leader of the free world.
They should instead stay calm, and tell the EU that, with the carrot of UK money for itemised bills agreed, now is the time to start trade negotiations in earnest.
If the EU Commission believes the German predicament is a reason to delay decisions, the UK must take the brave pills and walk away.
http://www.cityam.com/276205/dont-let-schadenfreude-over-angela-merkels-plight-derail
Wednesday, 31 August 2016
Who is Martin Schulz? Meet the outspoken European Parliament President
AHEAD of Martin Schulz's talks with the Turkish President tomorrow, here is a look at the outspoken President of the European Parliament.
Getty
Mr Schulz is meeting Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the presidential palace in Ankara as the Turkish crackdown continues in the wake of a failed coup.
Earlier this month Mr Schulz warned: “Erdogan's continuous talk of the death penalty only further estranges Turkey from the EU.”
Ahead of the talks tomorrow, here is a look at Mr Schulz's views, his politcial background and where he comes from.
Who is Martin Schulz?
The President of the European Parliament is a forthright politician and one of the leading federalists in the EU.
Mr Schulz, 60, has said it is time for a "genuine European government" to replace the unelected European Commission.
The veteran German politican has also attacked the Conservative Government for leaving everything in “limbo” in the wake of the Brexit vote.
After David Cameroon postponed Article 50, he said the “whole continent is taken hostage because of an internal fight in the Tory party”.
He was also a fierce critic of Mr Cameron’s efforts to reshape Britain’s EU membership and said his demands tested the patience of the EU.
Mr Schulz was first elected as President in 2012 after leading the Social Democrat group in the European Parliament.
Where does Martin Schulz come from?
The politician comes from the Rhineland in Western Germany near the border with the Netherlands and Belgium.
As child he dreamt of becoming a professional footballer but he had two serious knee injuries at the age of 18.
Instead of going to university, he became an apprentice bookseller and went on to run a bookshop.
Mr Schulz entered politics in his thirties and has been an MEP since 1994. He belongs to the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SDP).
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