End of the EU? How economist predicted bloc ‘may not survive’ after Brexit

THE EUROPEAN UNION was shaken by the UK’s decision to leave the bloc following the 2016 referendum, with some even suggesting Britain won’t be the last to leave. Some analysts have even expressed concerns the bloc will not survive, with one stating that more countries leaving is a “distinct possibility”.

By CHARLIE BRADLEY

PUBLISHED: 17:59, Wed, Jan 22, 2020 | UPDATED: 19:09, Wed, Jan 22, 2020

EU news: Roach said the EU 'may not survive' (Image: getty)

The worrying assessment of the state of the EU was made by leading American economist, Stephen Roach. The senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs claimed in March 2019 that the bloc is “imperfect” and the EU may not survive. Mr Roach argued the 2008 financial crisis, economic turmoil in southern Europe, and now, Brexit is taking a huge toll on the bloc.

He said: “In the early days there was some convergence of economic cycles, but then the asymmetric shocks in 2008 and 2009 have continued to ripple through the landscape and really challenge the idea that this is a cohesive economic zone that can be guided by one central bank.

“You have to wonder about the future of the European Union itself, it was never an optimal currency zone...how much can this political arrangement withstand?

“This is an imperfect union and the survivability of it is, I think, a serious question.”

He was also asked during his interview with CNBC whether it was likely that more countries would decide to follow in the UK’s footsteps and leave the EU.

He said: “I think that’s a distinct possibility, the idea that one size fits all has been rejected repeatedly over the last 10 years.”

Mr Roach was also asked about the economic impact of Brexit, to which he said the UK’s withdrawal would not cause a worldwide crisis, but would have a significant impact.

He said: “The link between the UK and Europe is important for pan-European trade, but that in itself isn’t enough to derail an entire global system, but it could have an impact.

“The downward growth pressure is in China, the weakness in Japan, the deceleration in the United States.

“In conjunction with uncertainties and potential shock coming out of Brexit, it’s certainly a potentially toxic cocktail for the global economy.

”Investor and billionaire George Soros has also expressed concern about the EU’s longevity.He said in February 2019 that Europe “is sleepwalking into oblivion.”

Mr Soros added: “The people of Europe need to wake up before it is too late. If they don’t, the European Union will go the way of the Soviet Union in 1991.”This came despite his ardent anti-Brexit views. “

EU news: Soros even said the EU was headed for 'oblivion' (Image: getty)

In fact, in 2017 he claimed the UK was “in denial” over Brexit. He predicted the UK’s withdrawal from the EU would cause economic harm to the country.

Mr Soros said: “At the moment the people in the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as was predicted and they live in hope.

“But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to declining living standards.“This is going to take some time, but when it does happen they’ll realise that they are earning less than before because wages won’t rise as fast as the cost of living.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1232032/eu-news-economist-eu-may-not-survive-after-Brexit-spt

EU at breaking point? Brussels under threat as poll shows Italians do not trust trade bloc

THE EU has been dealt another blow as a recent survey of Italians has stated under 40 percent trust the trade bloc.

By BILL MCLOUGHLIN

PUBLISHED: 20:47, Mon, Dec 23, 2019 | UPDATED: 15:30, Sun, Jan 5, 2020

In a survey released on December 20 showed only 43 percent of those asked trusted the EU while 47 percent stated they don't.The poll by Europbarometer put Italy near the bottom of the countries who have an any faith in the trade bloc. 

Only the UK (29 percent), France (32 percent), and Greece (34 percent) are lower than Italy.

Moreover, the average for the trade bloc across its 28 members states is just 43 percent in terms of satisfaction with policies emanating from Brussels.

The news of Italy’s falling trust comes at a time of increasing pressure on the trade bloc.

Following Boris Johnson’s landslide election victory, the UK now has an even stronger mandate to leave the EU.

EU News: Only 38 percent trust the EU (Image: MEGA)

Mr Johnson has repeatedly stated he will take the UK out of the trade bloc by January 31 and complete the transition period by December 2020.

Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal was approved in the Commons last week by 358 to 234 votes.

Following the vote, Mr Johnson said there would be “no alignment” between the UK and the EU.

He also said the vote “paves the path for a new agreement on our future relationship with our European neighbours based on an ambitious free-trade agreement, with no alignment on EU rules, but instead control of our own laws and close and friendly relations.”

JUST IN: How EU could wipe Thatcher and Churchill's legacy post-Brexit

EU news: Oriol Junqueras was supported by the ECJ (Image: GETTY)

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In a further blow to the trade bloc’s legitimacy, both Spain and Poland have threatened to leave the EU this week.

In Spain, there is mounting pressure from right-wing parties to back a Brexit-style exit from the EU.

This is in the wake of anger across the country over a ruling by the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

On Thursday, the ECJ ruled jailed Catalan separatist leader, Oriol Junqueras should have Parliamentary immunity and therefore take up his position as an MEP.

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EU news: Brussels has voted on rule of law proceedings in Malta (Image: GETTY)

This comes in contrast to Madrid’s argument that he did not qualify to become an MEP as he had not sworn an oath to the Spanish constitution.

Right-wing party (Vox) leader, Santiago Abascal criticised the ruling and said “Spain should not have to comply” with the ECJ.

In Poland, the Government raced through legislation that would allow judges to be dismissed if they questioned the judicial reforms which were recently put forward.

Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has promised to reform the country since its re-election in October.

Brexit timeline (Image: Express)

In the wake of the ruling, the country’s Supreme Court warned Poland may have to leave the bloc.

It said: “Contradictions between Polish law and EU law will in all likelihood lead to an intervention by the EU institutions regarding an infringement of the EU treaties, and in the longer perspective will lead to the need to leave the European Union.”

Last week, the European Parliament voted on formal rule-of-law talks over Malta.

EU news: Mr Muscat will soon resign (Image: REX)

The vote was called following the death and subsequent investigation into the killing of journalist, Caruana Galicia in 2017 who had been investigating corruption in the government.

In light of the controversy in the country, MEPs backed a resolution (581 to 26) to start the process of suspending the rights of the state.

Speaking following the vote, Dutch liberal MEP Sophie in ’t Veld said: “What we expect is to put pressure not just on the Maltese government, but on the Commission and the Council to start moving.”

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1220659/EU-news-Brussels-chaos-Italy-news-trust-Europe-Ursula-von-der-leyen?

Europe's populist nightmare won't end with Brexit

London (CNN)The UK's failure to leave the European Union has created an almighty headache in Brussels.

Analysis by Luke McGee, CNN

Updated 1325 GMT (2125 HKT) May 12, 2019

Three years since the UK voted to Brexit have led to nowhere useful. Having missed two deadlines already, Brits are now obliged to take part in European elections on May 23 -- two months after they were supposed to be shot of the EU once and for good.

In two weeks, voters across the Union will elect 751 Members of the European Parliament. Historically, turnout in these elections is low. The small numbers that vote often do so to register their protest.

The anger at Brexit not yet being delivered plays into the hands of euroskeptics. Brexit was scheduled to have happened on March 29 and the UK was supposed to have nothing to do with these elections.

In 2014, Nigel Farage's anti-EU UKIP came first place in the UK's European elections. This put euroskeptic pressure on the then Prime Minister David Cameron, and ultimately forced him to call for the Brexit referendum. And we all know what happened next.

In 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party has an even easier job. Brexit betrayal is a powerful message, and Farage is once again expected to finish first.

England was already divided. Brexit is only making it worse

Euroskeptic parties won't do well only in Britain. The most recent polling from Europe Elects predicts that these parties could win up to 35% of seats in the European Parliament. Previously, euroskeptics have failed to coordinate at a European level, meaning their level of influence within the EU was always limited.

That could be about to change. Matteo Salvini, Italy's Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the far-right Lega Nord, which governs in coalition with the populist 5 Star Movement, has for months been trying to bring all euroskeptic parties together. If successful, he could create one of -- if not the -- largest bloc inside the EU parliament.

Euroskeptics have historically had less in common with one another than they've had in common, so it's unclear if Salvini can pull this off.

Catherine De Vries, Professor of Political Behaviour at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, thinks that the current momentum behind the skeptics could lead people setting their differences aside.

"If they all do well... some might join it (Salvini's block), because there is an incentive to join a bigger group."

That incentive is the ability to influence EU policy, rather than sit on the margins and protest.

Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics at the University of Kent and co-author of the book "National Populism," says many European populists have shifted from wanting a Brexit of their own to believing instead that they can influence Europe from the inside.

"What they will be is a more disruptive political force within the EU parliament," Goodwin said. "Most likely pushing for the return of powers to nation states, stronger border security, more help with dealing with refugees and probably more democratic and transparent institutions."

Goodwin says the battle between the European mainstream and the anti-EU populists is only going to accelerate as there's nothing to suggest that it's a short-term protest.

"The long-term trends that are driving these changes -- increasingly detached political institutions, a high rate of immigration, strong feelings of economic and status loss among white workers, weakening bonds between old mainstream parties and voters -- these are deep-rooted and have been coming for years, if not decades," Goodwin said. "...(Populism) looks to have much stronger anchors in our society than many are willing to think about."

The European elections could well result in some immediate pain for those in Brussels. But it won't end there.

There is an established pattern in European politics of center-right parties borrowing populist ideas to cling onto voters. The most obvious is example is the 2014 UK Independence Party (UKIP) win leading to the Conservatives offering a referendum on European Union membership.

But, as De Vries explains, it's sometimes more subtle. She points out that Mark Rutte, Prime Minister of the Netherlands, has recently been "downplaying the significance of the EU elections."

Why? Because polling suggest that his nationalist rivals, the Forum for Democracy, could well defeat his governing People's Party for Freedom and Democracy.

The fishing town where Brexit can't come soon enough 02:48

This would give a party that has campaigned for a Dutch exit from the EU, tighter border control and a ban on Islamic face veils a credibility it has yet to achieve. So, downplaying the impact of these elections, making it look like nothing more than a protest vote, suits Rutte.

If he can couple this with soft aping of the populist rhetoric, even better. And Rutte has form here, after he moved more to the right in 2017 in response to pressure from rivals.

Slowly, as mainstream, governing parties borrow the positions of the fringes, the dial shifts and we eventually arrive at a new normal. And this is where it all gets a bit complicated for Brussels.

Fifteen years since the last major expansion of the Union -- when 10 new countries were welcomed to the fold -- the vision of ever-closer union has lost some of its shine.

It's possible that the drive for less Europe has already begun.

"The negotiation has started. The question is how far will those concessions go? How much will the mainstream give to the populists?" Goodwin said.

Brexit disaster is making Britain a weird place to live in

It could be in the EU's interests to address this new reality, before it's too late. "It all depends on how strong they get. Having 30-35% of seats is one thing; having 40-45% in 10 years is another," Goodwin adds.

And this is the key point: Euroskepticism might have sparked Brexit in the UK, but right now in other European nations it means remaining in the EU and reforming it. And if the EU is to stick together, its leaders would be wise to accept that this might be their new reality.

After all, populists are currently in government in places like Italy, Austria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, some states of Germany and even the US.

As Goodwin says, they are "inching into the corridors of power," giving us case studies in what populists forming policy actually looks like.

After the parliamentary elections, the EU will elect new presidents of the European Parliament, European Commission and European Council.

Where their predecessors will be remembered for trying to keep the union on the same page as it navigated Brexit, the biggest threat the EU has ever faced, these new leaders may find themselves having to tussle with a bunch of politicians more belligerent than the UK. But, unlike the Brits, the EU will be stuck with them for a very long time.

The European Union - the New Soviet Union?

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Published on 1 Oct 2006

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Vladimir Bukovsky spent many years in Russian labour camps and psychiatric prisons for defending human rights. He came to Britain in 1976. He lectures and writes on the old Soviet system and the EU. From the DVD 'Britain on the Brink' (www.junepress.com). www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Bukovsky

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU

George Soros: 'drastic' action needed for eurozone to survive

The eurozone risks lurching towards another major financial crisis triggered by austerity and populist political parties intent on blowing apart the EU, the billionaire investor George Soros has warned.

Richard Partington 30 May 2018

Sounding the alarm as financial markets fell into turmoil on Tuesday amid a deepening political crisis in Italy, Soros said the EU had lost its way since the 2008 banking crash and required radical transformation in order to survive.

“The EU is in an existential crisis. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong,” he said in a speech in Paris.

Related: Soros-backed campaign to push for new Brexit vote within a year

Having recorded the strongest period of economic growth in a decade towards the end of 2017, Europe appears to be heading for a fresh summer of political unrest for the first time in several years. Investors fear the turmoil could ultimately lead to the demise of the euro, plunging the region into chaos.

Related: George Soros: The incredible story of the penniless Nazi refugee who broke the Bank of England (Lovemoney)

The incredible story of the penniless Nazi refugee who broke the Bank of England

Italian bonds dropped sharply on Tuesday, pushing the country’s borrowing costs to the highest levels in more than four years as concerns grew that the EU’s third-largest economy could exit the single currency.

The crisis comes after Sergio Mattarella, the country’s president, vetoed the appointment of a controversial Eurosceptic as finance minister over the weekend, laying the ground for fresh elections later this year.

In Spain, the prime minister Mariano Rajoy faces a vote of confidence on Friday that could further plunge southern Europe into political turmoil.

Related: Europe's fragility is exposed again

© Getty composite

While the fresh unrest is likely to embolden eurosceptics who believe the EU is ultimately doomed, including prominent Brexiters in the UK pushing for Theresa May to take a tougher stance against Brussels, Soros said reforms could help save the bloc.

The Hungarian-born investor said an “addiction to austerity” at the heart of Europe was harming economic development, which had in turn been exploited by populist politicians to stoke anti-EU support.

“As a result [of austerity], many young people today regard the EU as an enemy that has deprived them of jobs and a secure and promising future,” he said.

Soros, a prominent supporter of the Remain campaign, said there were still steps that could be taken to make the EU more appealing to ordinary voters, who had been let down by Brussels since 2008.

Calling for an EU-funded Marshall plan for Africa worth about €30bn (£26bn) per year, he said migratory pressures across Europe could be relieved by helping developing nations. He also called for the EU to abandon rules requiring member states to join the euro single currency, lest they eventually combine with other EU rules to “destroy” the project altogether.

Echoing a call made by David Cameron ahead of the Brexit vote, he argued for the EU to allow member states to pursue “multi-track” relations with the bloc, rather than “ever closer union”. That would enable countries to work together in certain areas and diverge in others, helping to address issues of sovereignty.

“Europe needs to do something drastic in order to survive its existential crisis. Simply put, the EU needs to reinvent itself,” he said.

QUICK GUIDE: What are the Brexit options now? Four scenarios

Staying in the single market and customs union

The UK could sign up to all the EU’s rules and regulations, staying in the single market – which provides free movement of goods, services and people – and the customs union, in which EU members agree tariffs on external states. Freedom of movement would continue and the UK would keep paying into the Brussels pot. We would continue to have unfettered access to EU trade, but the pledge to “take back control” of laws, borders and money would not have been fulfilled. This is an unlikely outcome and one that may be possible only by reversing the Brexit decision, after a second referendum or election.

The Norway model

Britain could follow Norway, which is in the single market, is subject to freedom of movement rules and pays a fee to Brussels – but is outside the customs union. That combination would tie Britain to EU regulations but allow it to sign trade deals of its own. A “Norway-minus” deal is more likely. That would see the UK leave the single market and customs union and end free movement of people. But Britain would align its rules and regulations with Brussels, hoping this would allow a greater degree of market access. The UK would still be subject to EU rules.

The Canada deal

A comprehensive trade deal like the one handed to Canada would help British traders, as it would lower or eliminate tariffs. But there would be little on offer for the UK services industry. It is a bad outcome for financial services. Such a deal would leave Britain free to diverge from EU rules and regulations but that in turn would lead to border checks and the rise of other “non-tariff barriers” to trade. It would leave Britain free to forge new trade deals with other nations. Many in Brussels see this as a likely outcome, based on Theresa May’s direction so far.

No deal

Britain leaves with no trade deal, meaning that all trade is governed by World Trade Organization rules. Tariffs would be high, queues at the border long and the Irish border issue severe. In the short term, British aircraft might be unable to fly to some European destinations. The UK would quickly need to establish bilateral agreements to deal with the consequences, but the country would be free to take whatever future direction it wishes. It may need to deregulate to attract international business – a very different future and a lot of disruption.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/george-soros-drastic-action-needed-for-eurozone-to-survive/