Lebanon looks to China as US, Arabs refuse to help in crisis

 Facing a worsening economic crisis and with little chance of Western or oil-rich Arab countries providing assistance without substantial reforms ...

 

By BASSEM MROUE, Associated Press

 

3 hrs ago   15 July 2020

BEIRUT (AP) — Facing a worsening economic crisis and with little chance of Western or oil-rich Arab countries providing assistance without substantial reforms, Lebanon’s cash-strapped government is looking east, hoping to secure investments from China that could bring relief.

But help from Beijing risks alienating the United States, which has suggested such a move could come at the cost of Lebanese-U.S. ties.

A tiny nation of 5 million on a strategic Mediterranean crossroads between Asia and Europe, Lebanon has long been a site where rivalries between Iran and Saudi Arabia have played out. Now, it's becoming a focus of escalating tensions between China and the West.

© Provided by Associated Press In this photo released by Lebanon's official government photographer Dalati Nohra, Lebanese prime minister Hassan Diab, right, meets with China's ambassador to Lebanon Wang Kejian, left, at the government palace, in Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, May 11, 2020. Lebanon is looking to China as its economic crisis worsens and Western and oil-rich Arab nations seem unwilling to help. China has reportedly offered to build power stations, a tunnel that cuts through the mountains to shorten the trip between Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley and a railway along Lebanon's coast. The U.S. warns that such offers by China could be a "debt trap."(Dalati Nohra via AP)

In recent months, the Lebanese pound has lost around 80% of its value against the dollar, prices have soared uncontrollably, and much of its middle class has been plunged into poverty. Talks with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout have faltered, and international donors have refused to unlock $11 billion pledged in 2018, pending major economic reforms and anti-corruption measures.

© Provided by Associated Press A drone picture shows a general view of containers piled up at one of Beirut's seaport terminals, in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 30, 2018. In recent weeks, Lebanon has been looking for stronger economic relations with eastern countries including China, Iraq and Russia as western countries and oil-rich gulf states have abstained from helping Prime Minister Hassan Diab's government that is backed by Hezbollah and its allies.(AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Left with few choices, Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government — supported by the Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies — is seeking help from China, an approach that the Shiite militant group strongly supports.

He is walking a tightrope.

© Provided by Associated Press A view of Zouq Mosbeh power plant, north of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, April 8, 2019. Lebanon is looking to China as its economic crisis worsens and Western and oil-rich Arab nations seem unwilling to help. China has reportedly offered to build power stations, a tunnel that cuts through the mountains to shorten the trip between Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley and a railway along Lebanon's coast. The U.S. warns that such offers by China could be a "debt trap." (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

“Our move toward China is very serious but we are not turning our back to the West,” a ministerial official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to the media. “We are passing through extraordinary circumstances and we welcome whoever is going to assist us.”

© Provided by Associated Press FILE - In this July 10, file, photo, a supporter of a communist group burns representation of U.S. currency, during a protest against U.S. interference in Lebanon's affairs, near the U.S. embassy, in Aukar northeast of Beirut, Lebanon. Lebanon is looking to China as its economic crisis worsens and Western and oil-rich Arab nations seem unwilling to help. China has reportedly offered to build power stations, a tunnel that cuts through the mountains to shorten the trip between Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley and a railway along Lebanon's coast. The U.S. warns that such offers by China could be a "debt trap." (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

He said China has offered to help end Lebanon’s decades-long electrical power crisis through its state companies, an offer the government is considering.

In addition, Beijing has offered to build power stations, a tunnel that cuts through the mountains to shorten the trip between Beirut and the eastern Bekaa Valley, and a railway along Lebanon’s coast, according to the official and an economist.

The U.S., which has historic relations with Lebanon and is a strong backer of its army, said such a move could come at the expense of Beirut’s relations with Washington.

The China overtures come at a time when Hezbollah and its allies are increasingly portraying the crisis in Lebanon, which stems from decades of corruption and mismanagement, as one fomented by the U.S. administration. They accuse the U.S. of imposing an informal “financial siege” on Lebanon, partly to put pressure on Hezbollah which Washington and its Gulf Arab allies consider a terrorist organization.

© Provided by Associated Press A drone picture shows a general view of containers are piled up at one of Beirut's seaport terminal, in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 30, 2018. In recent weeks, Lebanon has been looking for stronger economic relations with eastern countries including China, Iraq and Russia as western countries and oil-rich gulf states have abstained from helping Prime Minister Hassan Diab's government that is backed by Hezbollah and its allies. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

“We know well that there is a big decision to besiege the country. They are preventing any assistance to Lebanon,” Diab told a July 2 government meeting, according to his office.

Diab said, without naming any country, that “they are preventing transfers to the country and blocking credit lines to import fuel, diesel, medicine and flour to cut the electricity, starve the Lebanese and make them die without medicine.”

“Trying to blame Lebanon’s economic crisis on U.S. sanctions is misguided and false,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in response to the accusations.

Earlier this month, Diab received China’s ambassador to Lebanon, Wang Kejian, after which Lebanon’s industry minister was asked to follow up on possibilities of cooperation. Kejian declined to comment.

Hezbollah has advocated for a bigger role for China and other allies in Lebanon. The group had opposed an IMF program to get Lebanon out of its crisis, fearing it would come with political conditions. But it begrudgingly accepted that Lebanon engage in the negotiations as long as the IMF didn't dictate policy.

Seventeen rounds of talks between the government and the IMF since mid-May have failed to make any progress.

A person familiar with the discussions said it was not an “either-or” choice between China and the IMF, adding that the talks with the IMF are about covering the immediate fiscal deficit, injecting dollars and developing a framework for structural reform, while the discussions with Beijing are about infrastructure projects. The person spoke on condition of anonymity in order to describe the negotiations.

Lebanon defaulted on its sovereign debt in March, and economist Hasan Moukalled said most Western companies will be reluctant to invest there as long as the country does not reach a deal with the IMF. This is what makes Chinese companies different, he said.

Moukalled, who visited China several times in 2018 and 2019, said the projects that China has offered to work on are worth $12.5 billion.

The investments can be mutually beneficial. China can gain from close relations with Lebanon, with the country serving as a launch pad for the reconstruction of neighboring Syria, another Beijing ally.

Lebanon’s northern port of Tripoli has been expanded in recent years and could be a terminal in China’s trillion-dollar “Silk Road” project that's carving a trade route from east Asia to Europe.

Iran has also offered to sell Lebanon oil for Lebanese pounds, but officials in Beirut have been concerned about deals with Tehran because of Western sanctions. The government is in talks with Iraq's government, which is offering to give fuel to Lebanon in return for agricultural products.

“We understand Lebanon is in desperate need for an infusion of cash. They need investors,” U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea told Saudi-owned TV station Al-Hadath. After Lebanon’s default in March, “investors are not lining up at the door.”

Some people have talked about Lebanon turning east “as if that’s the answer to all of Lebanon’s economic woes,” she said, warning that Chinese investments might come “at the expense of the country’s prosperity, stability or fiscal viability, or, of course, on the long-standing relations with the United States.”

Russian Ambassador Alexander Zasypkin told the daily al-Joumhouria that Russia, China, Syria, Iran and Iraq can help Lebanon. He added that when the West refused, “the alternative to look east became more persistent.”

During a visit to Lebanon last week, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of the U.S. Central Command, was asked about Lebanon and other regional countries looking to China for resources and financing.

“You get what you pay for. That’s all I have to say,” McKenzie said.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/lebanon-looks-to-china-as-us-arabs-refuse-to-help-in-crisis/ar-BB16KtZk

Transnational terrorism and the IS factor

Governments making a mistake by turning a blind eye and denying the influence of this middle eastern group on local militants

Qasim A Moini
Dawn
Asia News Network
August 8, 2016 1:00 am

While the battlefields of Iraq and Syria in the Middle East may have seen the worst atrocities committed by the self-styled Islamic State (IS) militant group, also known by its Arabic acronym Daesh, countries far beyond this region have felt the shockwaves of terrorist violence.

The spillover of the Iraqi/Syrian conflict has been felt in Europe, as the recent atrocity in Nice; the March Brussels attacks; and last November's incidents in Paris show. Many home-grown European extremist Muslims have dedicated the violence they have perpetrated to IS.

However the broader Asian region - beyond the Middle East proper - is also not immune to mass-casualty terrorism carried out in the name of IS. For example, the bombing in July targeting Afghan Shi'ite Hazaras in Kabul; the Dhaka cafe attack, carried out in July; as well as the attacks in Jakarta in January this year have all been carried out by fighters pledging allegiance to IS.

This begs the question: how is a militant organisation based in the Syrian town of Raqqa - being attacked by a number of powerful opponents, including the Syrian state, the US and Russia - able to coordinate violence on such a spectacular global scale?

Perhaps the answer to this query lies in the fact that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed IS 'caliph', does not have to spend time, money or resources in physically activating cells in lands far and wide.

Instead, technology and social media are largely doing the job for him, as extremist groups and individuals already present in various states provide willing recruits for the IS cause, abandoning or altering their previous affiliations to accommodate the IS 'brand'.

Take the example of Pakistan. Since the 1980s, militant Islamist groups have grown exponentially - due to the initial benign or otherwise patronage of military dictator General Zia ul Haq, and the unfolding of the anti-Soviet, Saudi- and US-backed Afghan 'jihad' in the region.

Many of the militias that were formed in Pakistan during this period, which drew recruits from Afghanistan itself as well as from Pakistan and across the Muslim world, spawned 'jihadi' successors after the Afghan campaign itself was over. Some of these were anti-India and Kashmir-centric, while others were virulently sectarian, taking aim at Pakistan's sizeable Shi'ite Muslim minority. The vast majority of the groups adhered to the Salafi/Wahhabi or Deobandi creeds.

During the 1990s and beyond, these militant groups proliferated as the state chose not to act, indulging in horrific acts of violence.

Post-September 11, the Pakistani establishment did act, shutting down some (but not all) militant groups. In the aftermath of 2007's Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) operation in the heart of Islamabad, Pakistan witnessed an explosion of militant Islamist violence. This violence was only significantly controlled when the military went into the northwestern tribal regions in June 2014 to flush out the militants based there.

The reason for giving this lengthy background is to explain that now, with the rise of IS - a militant group that has grand territorial ambitions - there are many willing recruits for the IS cause in Pakistan, thanks to over three decades of active militancy.

Unfortunately, many in the top tiers of government have dismissed the possibility that IS may be making inroads in Pakistan through these militant actors. For example, Pakistan's federal Interior Minister Nisar Ali Khan has denied there is any IS presence in the country. Yet there are frequent news reports stating that militants have been arrested from various Pakistani cities who, police claim, are linked to IS/Daesh. In fact in the aftermath of the recent Kabul Hazara bombing, a top US general stated that most IS fighters in Afghanistan were formerly associated with the Tehreek-i-Taleban Pakistan militant group before switching sides. Some Afghan Taleban fighters were also reportedly aligning with IS.

The Pakistani interior minister has said other 'terrorist groups' use the Daesh name.

This, it seems, is merely a matter of semantics, as the local militants are self-identifying as IS fighters. Then why should the government insist on denials? Despite the wavering at the top, some officials are willing to call a spade a spade. For example the head of Pakistan's Intelligence Bureau, a top civilian intelligence agency, has said on record that IS is an emerging threat in Pakistan; he named Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan, two anti-Shi'ite sectarian militant groups, as likely to be allied with IS. The Pakistani example - home-grown militants and extremists pledging allegiance to the IS cause - can be applied to other Asian states as well.

Like Pakistan, the Bangladesh government had also initially denied the presence of IS in the country, despite several claims made by the outfit. In fact it has blamed mainstream opposition parties like the Jamaat-i-Islami and Bangladesh Nationalist Party for the violence. But as some observers noted, those involved in the violence in Bangladesh and claiming to fight for IS were linked to the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh, a long-active militant group.

According to the UN more than 30 groups worldwide have pledged allegiance to IS. SouthEast Asia is among the regions on the militant group's radar, and in this region established militant networks are also being used to further the IS cause, as the report 'Radicalisation in Southeast Asia', focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, published by the Malaysian government and supported by the EU and UNODC, points out in great detail.

In fact fighters from the Southeast have been active in the Middle East, and many have returned home. Moreover, in May 2015 Singapore's prime minister had said Southeast had turned into a key "recruitment centre" for IS; experts said Mindanao in the Philippines was particularly vulnerable where the establishment of a possible province of IS was concerned.

Groups such as Ansar al-Shariah, Abu Sayyaf, Jamaa Islamiyah and others that have long been active in the region have been linked to IS. The Syrian conflict has played a key role in raising IS' profile in Indonesia and Malaysia. Groups and individuals attracted to IS' Takfiri and sectarian creed form the base of Asian support for Daesh. Actual transfer of funds has been reported from Raqqa and Australia to Indonesia.

More than 100 Indonesian fighters have been reported to be in Syria and Iraq as per official figures; unofficial figures say the number may be as high as 800. Also, in 2014, Katiba Nusantara, the Daesh 'unit' fighting in the Middle East and consisting of Malay-speaking militants, was formed.

In the Philippines the official position is that IS has no real presence in the country, even though members of Abu Sayyaf have pledged allegiance and there has been IS recruitment in Mindanao. Some officials have made a difference between 'Daesh-directed'and 'Daesh-inspired' - again, this difference may be purely academic.

The fact is that denying the presence of IS in their countries will not help governments deal with the problem. While it is true that fighters may not be hopping on planes out of Syria and Iraq to form cells or 'provinces' abroad - though the return home of fighters from these countries is a problem - all militants need is a good Internet connection and enough propaganda material to 'inspire' would-be jihadis sitting in far-off lands. Hence, perhaps Asian governments need to take a long, hard look within at the militant and extremist movements that already exist to stem further acts of terrorist violence.

The writer is a senior editor at Dawn and a scholar on religious militancy.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Transnational-terrorism-and-the-IS-factor-30292390.html