It's time to take control and BEEF up UK border protection, says CHARLIE ELPHICKE

SECURITY in the English Channel is not strong enough and needs to improve.

By CHARLIE ELPHICKE

PUBLISHED: 00:01, Wed, Aug 10, 2016

The threat of human traffickers crossing the Channel is on the rise

There is a rising threat from people-trafficking by yachts and small boats. 

Meanwhile there are growing concerns that cross Channel transport should have increased protection to counter the rising terrorist threat.

Just last week, five Iranians were trafficked to Winchelsea in Sussex. 

Last month traffickers were convicted of trafficking Albanians to Dymchurch in Kent. 

While last November a man was found running a people-trafficking operation from France to Kingsdown in Kent. These are just the ones we know about.

The National Crime Agency is warning these cases are just the tip of a very large iceberg. They say there is a growing small craft people-trafficking problem. 

An extensive people-trafficking trade being run via 200 social media sites has been discovered. 

The Home Affairs Select Committee has found increased security at the main Channel Ports has caused people-trafficking gangs to seek out alternative routes. 

Border Force’s ability to counter this growing problem has been condemned in a damning report by their independent inspector. 

But then they have to make do with just three ships to cover over 7,000 miles of British coastline.

It is increasingly clear we need urgently to beef up our defences.

GETTY

A new Dover Patrol needs to be set up to watch the British coastline

A century ago the Dover Patrol kept the White Cliffs of Dover and the English Channel safe in time of war.

Now we need to declare war on the cross Channel people-traffickers with a New Dover Patrol. We need more ships on patrol in the English Channel.

The Government should recall Royal Naval units patrolling the borders of Mediterranean nations - who have more border control vessels than we do - to keep the English Channel safe and secure. 

Migrants go to incredible lengths to cross borders

Thu, August 4, 2016

Desperate migrants fleeing Syria and surrounding places have been trying to sneak across borders in incredible ways. These include hiding in suitcases and sleeping next to car bonnets

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The New Dover Patrol should be led by the Royal Marines. The Marines have the expertise to catch the people-traffickers and protect shipping.

France takes the threat of attacks on ferries very seriously. So should we. Britain should join France in having armed guards accompany ferries.

Security arrangements in the Channel Tunnel must also be reviewed.

GETTY

Security on cross-channel ferries and the Chunnel must be ramped up too

It’s time to beef up our border protection. To take control and stop the people-traffickers. 

We cannot be complacent about the threat from ISIL/Daesh and terrorism. 

We should join France in having armed guards accompany ferries as well as ensure the Channel Tunnel is as secure as we can make it.

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/698241/Its-time-take-control-beef-up-UK-border-protection-says-Charlie-Elphicke

The Euro and complete rubbish

If Italians lose faith with the status quo -- and just the latest mafia scandal on refuse collection is spiralling -- Beppe Grillo could form the next government. His Five-star Movement has promised a referendum on Italy remaining in the euro. Rubbish could yet secure the demise of the single currency

Tim Hedges

On 9 August 2016 07:33

The future of the Euro...

Could the future of the single currency depend on the rubbish collection in one southerly capital? As the TV series The Sopranos showed, there is nothing that attracts organised crime like rubbish collection.

And there is no one who does organised crime like the Italians.

Let us look back to the days of Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s last elected Prime Minister, who was chased out of office by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy five years ago, in 2011. There was a rubbish scandal then, but it was in Naples.

Naples is different, as everyone knows. There is bound to be a scandal there, and it’s bound to be something to do with organised crime.

The rubbish built up on the Neapolitan streets and Silvio promised to do something about it. He did, but as with his other crisis at the time, Alitalia, it was a short-term, face saving fix.

The problem with rubbish is that organised crime gets hold of the dumps, renting them out to higher paying customers such as people trying to hide toxic waste, so that there is no space left for legitimate waste such as yours or mine.

Europe’s open borders are a dream come true for the various mafias. Companies in northern Germany were driving toxic chemicals down through Austria, north and central Italy to Naples without being stopped.

Now the problem is Rome, and people are beginning to wish they still had Silvio the magician’s touch to save them. What has happened is that the organised crime syndicate at the heart of the Eternal City, known as Mafia Capitale, as well as ruining the transport system, the restaurants, the refugee management and the town planning, has done a traditional job on the rubbish.

Two years ago nobody knew of the existence of Mafia Capitale. They put any failure down to the rubbish collection system, AMA. Suddenly the rubbish is building up at alarming rates and people have realised there’s nowhere to put it.

This is of enormous importance here because deep down Romans harbour a great, if well-concealed, pride in their stunningly beautiful capital. Rubbish on the streets smacks of lack of care; it tarnishes their bella figura.

In the middle of all this, last June, there was an election and, dissatisfied with the usual alternating centre-left and centre-right, the people voted as mayor the 37 year-old lawyer Virginia Raggi from Beppe Grillo’s Five-star Movement. The new mayor has been greeted, if that is the right word, by the uncollected refuse.

Where all this is significant is that Prime Minister Renzi, unlike Rome’s new mayor, is unelected. When his party only very narrowly did best in the 2013 general election, its leader, an old fashioned leftie called Bersani, could not find anyone who would form a coalition with him, so he resigned and was replaced with Enrico Letta, who was ousted in a coup by Renzi the following year.

Renzi is now seeking his own democratic legitimacy by calling a referendum on his proposed constitutional reforms in the autumn. He says he will resign if he loses and the reforms, which are not uncontentious, are opposed by the Five-star Movement, which, while Silvio sleeps, is the main opposition.

If people are fed up with the status quo, this new party, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, would form the next government. And the Five-star Movement has promised a referendum on Italy remaining in the euro.

Raggi the new mayor has not started that well. It seems her rubbish adviser (for there are such things), Paola Muraro, may have a whiff of Mafia Capitale about her. But the stage is set: if Raggi can keep a lid on the rubbish and not allow Rome’s other problems to overcome her; and if Five-star’s other mayor, Chiara Appendino in Turin, can look sensible, then the party will appear ready for government.

The people of Italy would not be adverse to something new. There has been no growth this century. A generation has grown up which, due to political ideology, has no experience of, and little hope of, a job.

With Brexit, Italy has seen that it doesn’t have to adhere to the old formula. If Five-star look as if they can do the job of government, why the hell not? And the euro would end its disastrous sixteen-year life on an Italian rubbish dump.

Tim Hedges, The Commentator's Italy Correspondent, had a career in corporate finance before moving to Rome where he works as a freelancewriter, novelist, and farmer. You can read more of his articles about Italy here

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6388/the_euro_and_complete_rubbish

What if Trump really wins the election?

Donald Trump’s decision to join the US presidential race did not surprise many at first. The American businessman is known for his ambitions, driven by his success story as a real-estate magnate, as well as the popularity of the TV show “The Apprentice”.

Achara Deboonme
The Nation August 9, 2016 1:00 am

From neutrality, within months he has divided the nation, because of his strategy to sow the seeds of despair just to bolster his claims to become the US president. Globally he has also stirred curiosity, in a negative way. Leaders of several countries are closely observing the election campaigns, just to know what they have to do if Trump does win the race.

Global interest in this election is growing. Last week, at a special luncheon talk by Thomas Jordan, chairman of Swiss National Bank, a member of the Swiss-Thai Chamber of Commerce asked what would happen if Trump becomes the US president?

Jordan choked slightly in his reply. He politely said that as a central banker, he could not say much. He just reckoned that the winner’s responsibility is to make sure that "the openness remains intact".

Also last week, I received researches on this issue from two houses - United Overseas Bank and Maybank.

UOB's research was entitled "US Presidential Election 2016: What if US Gets Trump?" That's a very eye-catching title and the content is even more interesting, with this opening: "The upcoming US presidential election could have potential impact on Asia and Asian financial markets, particularly in the areas of trade, currency, and geopolitics".

The content offers a gloomy outlook for Asian economies, including Thailand.

While Hillary Clinton's win assures the world of the continuation of the Obama administration's policies, Trump's emergence would change that.

Chief among Trump’s campaign pledges are: Build a wall on the border with Mexico and make Mexico pay for it; renegotiate the trade agreement with Mexico, China and withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); and deploy US military appropriately in the East and South China seas with allies like Japan and South Korea meeting the full cost of security guarantees.

Trump may not be able to deliver on all his election promises due to the "checks and balances" in the US system, but he could deliver on, among others, trade reform to address deficits (by using executive orders) and on US military deployment (as the commander-in-chief), the bank said.

Countries with trade surpluses with the US could face risks, chiefly China, 20 per cent of whose exports go to the US market with a trade surplus exceeding US$300 billion in the past two years. In this regard, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand will also be particularly vulnerable, as more than 10 per cent of exports are headed to the US. Stronger domestic currencies, and/or tariff/non-tariff barriers could emerge.

If anything puts pressure on the Chinese yuan to rise against the US dollar, it is possible that Asian currencies would move in tandem with the yuan, UOB said.

The bank noted that though Thailand's trade diversification would shield it from a possible drop in exports to the US, the country would not be spared from the impacts of trade restrictions and protectionist agendas. As global trade contracts, export-oriented firms would postpone their investment owing to low capacity utilisation. "Consequently, it will be difficult to unleash a new investment cycle in Thailand and the economy would grow below its potential in the medium term."

The Thai economy could also face greater volatility in the financial markets, as the baht could strengthen against the greenback. In this case, the baht may not weaken to Bt36.5 at the end of this year as expected by UOB.

Maybank's research was more focused on the foreign-exchange market in the run-up to the November 8 election. The house expects the US Federal Reserve to factor in the political economy risk from the election, especially in view of Trump's campaign, and decide to raise interest rates by 0.25 basis points in December.

Maybank noted that disruption to trade flow would have an impact on growth prospects for the EU region, which is scheduling elections from now until 2017 in several countries like Austria, the Netherlands, France and Germany.

Maybank noted that aside from domestic political risks, external challenges, particularly the US presidential election, could also impact the baht/dollar exchange rate. Uncertainty would spark capital outflows from emerging markets, including Thailand, while Brexit concerns could spark another round of risk-haven flows. This would only weaken the baht, and Maybank expects the currency to end the year at Bt37 per dollar before creeping slightly higher to 37.20 in the second quarter of 2017.

Whatever happens, it is clear that the Thai economy could face strong headwinds and one of that is Trump.

Noting that Trump now has a 50 per cent chance, UOB economist Jimmy Koh said in the research note: "While we hesitate to place a Trump presidency as the base-case scenario, we should also highlight this outcome should not be treated as an unlikely event."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/What-if-Trump-really-wins-the-election-30292507.html

Office capital values in the City of London hit after the Brexit vote

Commercial property capital values fell in July due to heightened uncertainty after the Brexit vote, and offices in the City of London were the worst hit.

Monday 8 August 2016 11:19am
Helen Cahill


Property in the City of London has been dented by the Brexit vote (Source: Getty)

Capital values fell by 3.3 per cent, according to CBRE's monthly index, with the value of offices in the City of London falling by 6.1 per cent.

Read more: Commercial and City property prices crumble following the Brexit vote

Retail sector capital values were down by 3.6 per cent and industrial property values fell by 2.2 per cent, reflecting a weak supply and high demand in the industrial sector, CBRE said.

The figures come after it emerged that investors have been pulling out of commercial property.Retail investors withdrew £3.5bn from funds in the month of the EU referendum, according to the Investment Association, "eclipsing" outflows that occurred during the financial crisis.

Miles Gibson, head of research at CBRE, said: "Capital value growth was always expected to falter at some point during 2016, as global economic uncertainty cast doubt on the likelihood of the strong growth seen in previous years persisting for much longer.

Read more: Investors are getting cold feet about UK commercial property since Brexit

"The Brexit vote has now crystallised that expectation, though it is not the only driver of it."

Rental values across the UK's commercial property market were flat, with growth falling to zero from 0.2 per cent the month before.

CBRE said the fall came from shops in the retail sector; rental values fell by 0.3 per cent overall, and 0.6 per cent outside the South East.

http://www.cityam.com/247054/office-capital-values-city-london-hit-after-brexit-vote