BREXIT and beyond ....

Wednesday, 19 April 2017

May wins parliament's backing for June 8 snap election

Prime Minister Theresa May won parliament's backing for an early election on Wednesday, a vote she said would strengthen her hand in divorce talks with the European Union and help heal divisions in Britain.

UK | Wed Apr 19, 2017 | 4:17pm BST
By Elizabeth Piper and Kylie MacLellan | LONDON

May surprised allies and opponents on Tuesday when she announced her plan to bring forward an election that was not due until 2020, saying she needed to avoid a clash of priorities in the sensitive final stages of the two-year Brexit talks.

After addressing a rowdy session of the House of Commons, May won the support of 522 lawmakers in the 650-seat parliament for an election on June 8. Only 13 voted against.

With May seen winning a new five-year mandate and boosting her majority in parliament by perhaps 100 seats, the pound held close to six-and-a-half month highs on hopes she may be able to clinch a smoother, more phased departure from the EU and minimise damage to the UK economy.

"I believe that at this moment of enormous national significance there should be unity here in Westminster, not division," she said.

"A general election will provide the country with five years of strong and stable leadership to see us through the negotiations and ensure we are able to go on to make a success as a result, and that is crucial."

The former interior minister, who became prime minister without an election when her predecessor David Cameron quit after last year's referendum vote for Brexit, enjoys a runaway lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

She has also played up the strength of the economy, which has so far defied predictions of a slowdown - a key campaign theme that her Conservative Party will use to try to undermine Labour in the election.

A victory would give May a powerful mandate extending until 2022, long enough to cover the Brexit negotiations plus a possible transition period into new trading arrangements with the EU.

The Sun, Britain's top-selling newspaper, splashed the headline "Blue Murder" - a reference to the Conservatives' party colour and the prospect of Labour losing dozens of seats.

RELUCTANT

May formally notified the European Union on March 29 of Britain's intention to leave, and has said she is confident of reaching a deal on the terms of withdrawal in the two years available.

She said on Tuesday she had "reluctantly" come to the decision to call for an early election because of political division in Westminster, criticising opposition parties for trying to thwart her plans for leaving the EU.

"What do we know that the leader of the Labour Party, the leader of the Liberal Democrats and the leader of the Scottish nationalists have in common?" she asked parliament.

"They want to unite together to divide our country and we will not let them do it."

But for Scotland's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, the move was a "huge political miscalculation" that could help the Scottish National Party's efforts to hold an independence vote.

"If the SNP wins this election in Scotland and the Tories (Conservatives) don't, then Theresa May's attempt to block our mandate to give the people of Scotland a choice over their own future when the time is right will crumble to dust," said Sturgeon, who heads Scotland's devolved government.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn set the tone for his campaign by criticising May for her "broken promises" on healthcare and education, and jabbed at her for not agreeing to take part in television debates before the election.

May, who has described herself as "not a showy politician", said she would rather talk directly to voters.

"I will be debating these issues publicly across the country," she told parliament. "We will be taking a proud record of a Conservative government, but more than that we will taking our plans for the future of this country."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-idUKKBN17L0LD

Theresa May’s snap election is good news for Brexit and the United Kingdom

The Prime Minister’s gambit of calling an early General Election is an audacious move not without risk. But if she not only wins but wins well, it should mean a significant change in how the UK looks by the mid-2020s.

Wednesday 19 April 2017 4:59am
Brian Monteith

Theresa May certainly caught everyone by surprise yesterday when she stood in Downing Street and explained why she was going back on her word to go the full term until 2020. Opponents such as Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon have been quick to accuse her of starting the election with a U-turn, but that is rich when they have been casting doubt on her mandate to govern by arguing she was never elected as Prime Minister.

Now the electorate will have the opportunity to either endorse or reject May’s government, and all the polling and bookmakers point to it being a handsome win, with Labour routed under the hapless leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.

But is it that simple?

May is certainly playing for high stakes by betting the house on gaining a significant majority. She will talk up the issue of strengthening her hand to govern at home and to show the European Union that she has the country behind her as she goes into the Brexit negotiations. With polling showing that Brexit now enjoys more support than during the referendum itself (55 to 45 rather than 52 to 48), she should be working with the grain of public opinion.

She can also argue that, as the Brexit negotiations will not start in earnest until after the French and German elections in May and September respectively, there is a brief democratic sweet spot available to gain the backing of the electorate. And why not?

Her biggest risk is that voters might believe the Prime Minister is cynically playing them after she could see the polling showing her party consistently over 20 points clear of Labour, and her own popularity proving more attractive than David Cameron’s when he won back in 2015. It is possible the electorate will see things this way, but unlikely.

For the Prime Minister has otherwise been firm to her word. When she first entered Downing Street, she said “Brexit means Brexit”, and while many laughed she then explained she would invoke Article 50 before the end of March and publish a White Paper on what route Brexit would take us. She has delivered on all her promises and concluded that Brexit must mean taking control of immigration, laws and taxes, and so the UK must leave the Single Market and the Customs Union. By winning a handsome majority, she will argue that she will be in a better position to get the best deal possible – so why should people want to vote for a weak Prime Minister and poor deal?

Furthermore, the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011 is a particularly un-British piece of legislation that was one of the hangovers from Cameron’s coalition with Nick Clegg, and while the Prime Minister will get the backing of the two-thirds of MPs it requires to call her election, I would also expect her to move for its abolition if she is re-elected.

There are other upsides to this snap vote. The Prime Minister had already with some skill called the bluff of Sturgeon by forcing the latter to concede she could not force a second Scottish independence referendum to her timetable. Now, by calling the General Election early, the SNP faces another dilemma – should it include the demand for a second referendum in its election manifesto?

Any such explicit demand will only harden Unionist sentiment in Scotland and lead to the Conservatives winning half a dozen seats compared to the single seat they currently have. It could assist Labour and the Liberal Democrats in making a modest recovery there too. Although we can expect the SNP to remain the largest party, it is unlikely to retain its 49.9 per cent voter share obtained in 2015 when it told electors that backing the Nationalists was not a vote for independence.

And while many observers are focusing on how Labour will be defenestrated by a big Tory win, it should also be noted that the election will be held with the current constituencies as there has not yet been time for the long overdue boundary review to be enacted. The new boundaries will be in place by the next again General Election and the Conservatives can then expect to benefit, providing a healthy insurance policy against a resurgent Labour under new leadership.

In short, by winning well May can ensure the Tories are in power well into the next decade, providing the opportunity to liberalise and deregulate the country on the back of Brexit. That should be good for the City and good for United Kingdom PLC.

http://www.cityam.com/263099/theresa-mays-snap-election-good-news-brexit-and-united

Tuesday, 18 April 2017

General Election 2017: Theresa May has made the right decision to seek a mandate of her own, but the task ahead of her is enormous

The Prime Minister said she “reluctantly” concluded that a General Election on 8 June is the right thing to do.

Wednesday 19 April 2017 12:20am

Christian May

Christian May is the editor of City A.M.

The Prime Minister currently enjoys a 21 point lead in the polls (Source: Getty)

Just how reluctant a PM can be with a 21-point poll lead is up for debate, but having previously insisted that she wouldn’t go to the country, May now says it is the only way to “guarantee certainty and stability for the years ahead” in the face of “political game playing” by Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and unelected Lords – all of whom she accuses of seeking to frustrate Brexit in various ways.

May wants a fresh mandate and believes, rightly, that a newly elected, majority Tory government will make it harder for her political opponents (at home and abroad) to chip away at her authority during the Brexit negotiations.

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron senses an opportunity to stand on an “anti hard-Brexit” platform, and his party will likely gain a number of new MPs. As for Labour, Jeremy Corbyn faces a devastating defeat followed by yet more blood-letting and in-fighting for his party.

He says he “welcomes the Prime Minister’s decision” but his confidence cannot be high: the latest polls put Labour on just 23 per cent. The last time Labour polled so low on the eve of an election, Margaret Thatcher bagged a majority of 144.

Beyond Brexit, May can also now respond to those who claim her domestic policy agenda (think grammar schools) lacks a mandate.

A new manifesto will be presented and in all likelihood, May will secure her place in Downing St for a further five years. The timetable is tight: by the end of June a new government will be picking up the Brexit negotiations without too much time having been lost.

The PM’s statement in Downing St referred to the positive economic backdrop, citing strong growth and robust consumer confidence. May’s calculation is that these benign conditions will remain in place at least until polling day.

Whatever happens after then, she’ll likely have a fresh mandate and a strong majority with which to face it.

She’s made the right decision. The tasks ahead of her, domestically and with regards to Brexit, are enormous and complex – but her hand will be strengthened by a General Election victory.

http://www.cityam.com/263055/christian-may-theresa-may-has-made-right-decision-but-task

Monday, 17 April 2017

Euro on brink with volatility sweeping through markets as French election on KNIFE EDGE

THE EURO is expected to fluctuate dramatically this week as investors renew their attention on the increasingly dramatic French elections.

By SIOBHAN MCFADYEN

PUBLISHED: 16:51, Mon, Apr 17, 2017 | UPDATED: 17:19, Mon, Apr 17, 2017

Mounting drama in the French presidential race is expected to cause the euro to fluctuate

And it is almost certainly set to be a battle of the far-right and far-left as the polarisation of the vote continues.

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Polls appear to indicate that Front National candidate Marine Le Pen will make it through to the second round of the vote with far-left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon gaining ground on centrist Emmanuel Macron.

Mr Melenchon, who has a hard line approach to the EU, appears to have 20 per cent of the vote catching up on pro-Europe En Marche! candidate Mr Macron who has 22 per cent in polls of polls data.

While Mrs Le Pen continues to stay strong with her 22 percentage points indicating she is still a front runner, the issue of Europe appears to be weighing on voters minds.

Historically the French left has come out to attempt to stop the far-right from gaining power and wild card Melenchon could be capitalising on anti-EU sentiment.

This will almost certainly lead to more market volatility for the Euro currency which has been showing that investors are uneasy, say analysts.

The risk is that the far left and the far right make it into the second round

Kathleen Brooks of City Index

Kathleen Brooks of City Index says: "The risk is that the far-left and the far-right make it into the second round run off".

US bank JP Morgan has warned that a victory for Mrs Le Pen could see the value of the euro tumble to 98 cents to the US dollar.

While some analysts say that a Macron win will almost certainly help to catapult the Euro thanks to positive investor sentiment.

Historically the EU has been a major bone of contention for the French people who are concerned about free movement of people, unemployment and terrorism.

The French public is said to overwhelmingly oppose EU policies, 12 years after they voted to reject the EU constitution in a referendum result that was never ratified.

More than 15 million people in France voted against the constitution with almost 55 per cent of people voting No with 45 per cent in favour, with a turnout of 70 per cent.

But in reality, Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin was quickly replaced by Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy became Minister of the Interior.

Sarkozy was then later elected as President of the French Republic in May 2007 and later organised a renegotiation and ratification without a referendum, leaving the public furious.Eventually he brought the Lisbon Treaty to Parliament, against the wishes of the 15,449,508 people who voted no, and pushed the treaty through instead.

GETTY

Le Pen and Macron remain tied on 22 per cent as left-winger Melenchon gains ground

Mr Macron, who has never been elected to public office and was appointed by Francois Hollande as finance minister, has continued to support the EU despite the public's reticence.

He has been leading the polls for the moderates however has recently been overshadowed by Mr Melenchon who is taking a hard line.

The first round of the vote will take place on Sunday April 23, with a second run off, if no one achieves an overall majority taking place on May 7.

GETTY

Investors are worried about the far-right and far-left candidates facing off in the second round

There are currently 11 candidates running with traditional Republican Francois Fillon's campaign still facing issues over the employment scandal plaguing his family polling at 19 per cent.

However an Opinionway poll reported today that Francois Fillon would beat Marine Le Pen in a run-off vote by 60 percent to 40 percent if the Republican leader made it through to second round.

Meanwhile socialist Beniot Hamon is is projected to take just 7.5 per cent.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/792942/Euro-currency-France-president-election-Le-Pen-Macron

Friday, 7 April 2017

Germany buckles: Business admits it needs UK market

In a major breakthrough for common sense, German business has admitted it stands to lose enormously if Britain quits the EU without a trade deal. Our negotiating hand has just got a lot stronger. If we play a tough game, we'll get the trade deal we want

German business needs Britain

the commentator

On 7 April 2017 12:22

Germany's BVMW, the country's largest organisation representing small and medium sized businesses (SMEs), has indicated that tens of billions of euros in business and hundreds of thousands of German jobs depend upon a free trade deal being reached between Britain and the European Union.

The news is a huge boost for Brexit and confirms what eurosceptics have long argued -- Germany and the rest of the EU have an enormous amount to lose should Britain simply walk away from the EU without a workable trade deal.

"Germany exported goods worth 89 bn euros to the UK alone in 2015, almost half of it was exported by 150,000 German SMEs," BMVW head Mario Ohoven told the BBC.

"In the end, a soft Brexit should be reached. It is important that the UK stays in the single market, or that the UK joins an agreement similar to the EFTA (European Free Trade Association), similar to Norway or Iceland...The worst result would be if the EU and the UK did not reach an agreement in time...We shouldn't forget that 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on the trade with the United Kingdom".

By "worst result" of course, he means "worst result" for German businesses and workers, which is what Brexiteers have been saying all along in opposition to the anti-Brexit camp which has persuaded itself that Britain's trade relationship with the EU is all one way traffic.

As angry bluster inside the EU over Brexit gives way to hard headed business sense, such messages will quickly reach the German and European political classes.

As we have argued before, this is why we need to play hardball in the negotiations, especially at the outset. Theresa May and company need to keep their focus on the economic interests of all sides.

If we hold our nerve, we'll get everything we need for a smooth and successful Brexit.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6543/germany_buckles_business_admits_it_needs_uk_market