Saturday, 27 March 2021

How can Europe's future be safe in these people's hands?

5 Oct 2019


This is just so damning from on our new European Government. You wouldn’t trust these people to run a parish council, never mind the all-powerful European Commission. A dumping ground for failed politicians. All unelected of course too!

 Click on the link below to watch the video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1180492015680839685

https://twitter.com/RupertLowe10/status/1180492015680839685




- - - - - - - - - - - -


Other Reads:


European Union Blames AstraZeneca for Its Vaccine Failures


EU Blocks Vaccine Shipment to Australia: Report

The European Commission has reportedly authorised the Italian government to block a shipment of AstraZeneca vaccines destined for Australia, using for the first time an export control system the EU created if it deemed a drugs company had failed to deliver its orders to the European Union.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen adjusts her facemask ahead of delivering a statement ahead of the first day of a European Union (EU) summit at The European Council Building in Brussels on October 1, 2020. - EU chief Ursula von der Leyen declared October 1, 2020, that Brussels …


The MP demanding a new approach to China

The MP demanding a new approach to China

We’re running out of time to prevent a Beijing-dominated world, says Neil O’Brien

From The Spectator magazine issue: 
16 May 2020 (10 months old)
Katy Balls & James Forsyth




Six years ago, Neil O’Brien was working for George Osborne when the then chancellor was enthusing about a ‘new golden era’ in Sino-British relations. But now O’Brien, who became the Conservative MP for Harborough in 2017, is one of the founders of the new China Research Group, a group of Tory MPs who are pushing for the government to take a tougher line with Beijing. His best-case scenario is one where the UK and its allies ‘manage to restrain some of the worst behaviours of the Chinese government’.

O’Brien’s change of heart sums up the shift in Tory thinking on China. The party has moved away from pushing for the UK to be China’s best friend in the West, and now regards the Chinese Communist party as a dangerous power that must be checked.

When we discuss the matter with O’Brien by Zoom, he says that his thinking has changed because the ‘facts on the ground about China have also changed’ since the time when David Cameron and Osborne were busy deepening ties, as exemplified by Osborne’s controversial decision to push through the China--funded Hinkley Point nuclear energy project. O’Brien’s analysis is that ‘China has clearly fallen off the path of economic opening’ and ‘is still doing all of the things they promised they wouldn’t do when they joined the WTO [World Trade Organisation]. Massive state subsidies; huge extraction of intellectual property in lots of different ways, be that industrial espionage or joint ventures in which people’s technology is forced over; huge state-owned enterprises, massive state banks pumping out lots of soft loans. Basically, you name it, they are doing it.’
‘China is still doing all of the things they promised they wouldn’t do when they joined the WTO’

O’Brien, who is 41, was described by one colleague as the Conservative party’s ‘most unlikely rebel’, and his involvement with this new venture shows how Sino-scepticism is now a mainstream opinion among Tories. Even before Covid-19, concerns over the direction in which President Xi’s China is heading had been bubbling away for some time. In March, 38 Tory MPs rebelled over the Prime Minister’s decision to allow the Chinese company Huawei to help build the UK’s 5G network. But while these were MPs known for being outspoken or who had little chance of promotion, the China Research Group is made up of party loyalists tipped for ministerial office in this parliament, such as Dehenna Davison, Andrew Bowie and former Boris Johnson aide Anthony Browne. Their involvement shows that there is no longer a sense that being critical of China is a fringe view or a bar to advancement.

O’Brien worries that, even putting aside the security risks, the current economic relationship with China will only serve to stamp out innovation in the West. ‘Why should you invest heavily in risky R&D at a firm in the West if everything you invest in is just going to get ripped off by a firm in China and used against you?’ he asks. ‘They are playing a zero-sum game that is negative for us.’

Now that parliament is working online in lockdown, the group has been making do with meetings via the video app Jitsi. While it’s early days, he hopes that they can learn from a very influential Tory group which has dominated the headlines in recent years: the European Research Group. ‘The ERG had been around since about 1993 trying to create a debate in the UK about the EU when there wasn’t really much of a debate — every-one was on the same side,’ O’Brien says. ‘It took a long time to get from the Bruges speech to the 2016 vote. There’s no particular read-across from the European debate to the debate about how to cope with Beijing, but that kind of sense of trying to build up a stronger understanding and a more lively debate about the issues, I think is analogous.’


On Huawei, he backed the government the last time around — he has never voted against it since he became an MP. While he thinks a more general reset on the UK’s relationship with China is required, he says it is ‘too early to say’ which lobby he will walk through come this summer’s vote on the matter.

His stance on the company can’t exactly be described as positive, though. ‘When Huawei helped track down the members of the Ugandan opposition using their mobile phone data and spied on their communications, I think that is an example of where things can have a diplomatic and geo--strategic implication as well as a commercial one, and so yes, it is very hard to make those kinds of distinctions in an economy that is in truth not really a market economy,’ he says. ‘It’s one where the government is making a lot of the key decisions, and the political system that we thought would maybe wither in the 1990s has actually just taken more control over the situation.’

Coronavirus means that for many MPs, concerns about China’s communist regime can no longer be put to one side. ‘You don’t need to exaggerate anything about it to see that the country’s authoritarian system is creating a problem in recognising the truth at an early stage,’ he says of reports that the Chinese government kept information on the virus to itself. ‘I mean everybody who watched [the TV miniseries] Chernobyl will see a parallel there.’ He believes it would be ‘reasonable’ to conduct an inter-national inquiry. Asked whether he thinks the UK would be in a different situation if China had been franker from the beginning, he replies: ‘Yes, I think we probably would be.’

An approach which means the UK does not have to rely on China for essential products will be key for the future. This will be an area in which research can be expected. ‘The US is having this conversation, doing a lot more and always doing more than us, the Japanese and the Europeans are doing more, and we need to get with the programme on all of this stuff.’ As for the American approach to China, O’Brien says that no matter who wins the US election in November, in the future Washington will be even more reluctant to work collaboratively with the Chinese state — or with countries that side with it. ‘I think a lot of what the US is going to do is going to put us on the spot, and other countries too, in that way,’ he says. ‘That will absolutely not stop after Trump, because below the kind of headline Biden-vs-Trump, kind of biffing each other, there is a very strong bi-partisan consensus in Washington now, with both sides of the Senate and every government agency.’

So with the UK government’s approach to China under more scrutiny, will the Prime Minister be willing to listen? ‘I’ve never had a conversation about it with him so I honestly don’t know,’ he says. ‘It’s not like it was a big thing in the leadership contest or anything, so people are not currently sure what his view on it is.’

O’Brien is convinced that Britain, and the democratic world more broadly, have only limited time left to prevent a Beijing-dominated world. He warns that they ‘have been wiping the floor with us economically, by means fair and unfair, and you can see why they are confident they’re going to win — and we need to do some things to change course so that doesn’t happen’.


WRITTEN BYKaty Balls & James Forsyth

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-mp-demanding-a-new-approach-to-china


ALSO READ:

How the real cost of any US-China conflict will be felt for years in lost productivity

 When tensions such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea spill over into violence, productivity plummets and wealth is destroyed

Nationalism and negative views of China are rising worldwide, and any shift from the status quo could destroy productivity for decades to come

A mural which says “defend the homeland” painted on a wall on Taiwanese-controlled Quemoy island, which lies around 6km from mainland China, in the Taiwan Strait. Photo: AFP
A mural which says “defend the homeland” painted on a wall on Taiwanese-controlled Quemoy island, which lies around 6km from mainland China, in the Taiwan Strait. Photo: AFP

When it comes to asset allocation, I am less worried about a taper tantrum over a sudden rise in US interest rates than a violent US-China clash.

In this context, it is useful to consider the true cost of conflict. The cost is much higher than a direct calculation like military expenditure; an accurate measure must include lost productivity. While the obvious potential source of military conflict is Taiwan or the South China Sea, anxiety is also rising over Hong Kong, Covid-19, the trade war, sanctions, cyberwar and so on. 

In the long term, economic growth is driven by productivity. We are in the midst of a disruptive, transformative wave of productivity. I write this overlooking Long Island Sound, having just spoken over video conference with a Google employee in Delhi about a book advertising campaign.

The video somehow flowed through my phone hotspot. We chatted about the relative speed of vaccine distribution in Delhi and Connecticut, a vaccine created in record time. The list of such innovative moments goes on and on. Amid such wonders, fighting over land or who can read what newspapers seems anachronistic. Yet, nationalism persists.

The primitive parts in our brains that instinctively fear change and doubt people who do not look or talk like us remain intact.

Calculating politicians tap into those primitive urges. Also, the cultural collisions this new technology accelerates are real. While the Google employee and I were of one mind about technology, our cultural traditions are distinct.

When this tension spills over into violence, productivity plummets and wealth is destroyed. The US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan cost around US$6 trillion. This money could have been used to upgrade America’s creaky infrastructure. Instead, the spending had an intolerably high human cost and did not create stability in either region.

The track record of poorly conceived military ventures is long. German wealth was wiped out twice in the first half of the 20th century. For example, the 1923 hyperinflation triggered by efforts to pay war reparations followed by World War II eviscerated German wealth.

Yet, the scars run far deeper. The true cost was the enormous productivity Germany lost by failing to choose another path. German mathematics was crippled because top talent left, depriving those who remained of critical instruction and generations of talent being born abroad. 

The closest recent parallel to a potential US-China clash is Crimea. Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, a decision supported by many Russians and one the Kremlin deemed in its interests. In response, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The United States and Europe applied sanctions.

In the same year as the invasion, Saudi Arabia refused to cut oil production. This led to a collapse in the price of oil, Russia’s key export. Before the invasion, the Russian rouble was trading at 35 to the US dollar. Afterwards, it fell to 80 and has yet to recover.

Just as German mathematics suffered after WWII, the Crimea invasion left a lasting scar on Russian productivity. This is most clearly seen in the cost of capital. Ten-year interest rates are below 2 per cent in the US, around 3 per cent in China and closer to 7 per cent in Russia.


The real or inflation-adjusted yield is negative on US bonds, modestly positive on Chinese bonds and around 4 per cent on Russian bonds. It costs more to borrow money in Russia in part because investors expect geopolitical risks.

A high cost of capital impairs investment. One example is household debt. Russian household debt is around 20 per cent of GDP. By contrast, the US is closer to 80 per cent and it is
60 per cent in China. This lack of capital formation directly ties to GDP growth.

Russian GDP is around US$1.7 trillion. If household debt levels were closer to China’s, Russia would have produced another US$600 billion of spending since 2014, similar to the type of growth rates China has enjoyed.

For now, I maintain exposure to both US and Chinese assets. I also believe Russian assets are attractive, in part because the rouble is depressed relative to the US dollar. The odds of productive dialogue with China are higher under US President Joe Biden than under Donald Trump, and both markets have attractive characteristics.

That said, negative views of China are rising worldwide. If the status quo around Taiwan or the South China Sea shifts from posturing to actual conflict, not only will my asset allocation be in danger, the hit to productivity will last for decades to come.


Paul Podolsky is an investor, author and podcast host, see: paulpodolsky.com. He spent over 20 years on Wall Street, most of that time with Bridgewater Associates


https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3125642/how-real-cost-any-us-china-conflict-will-be-felt-years-lost

27 Mar 2021: German court halts ratification of EU virus recovery fund

The fund was agreed upon by the EU members in December as part of a €1.8tr budget up to 2027

BERLIN: The German Constitutional Court on Friday abruptly stopped Europe’s biggest economy from ratifying a €750 billion ($885 billion) EU coronavirus recovery fund, after a last-minute legal challenge was filed against the move.

March 27, 2021

German court halts ratification of EU virus recovery fund
Along with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had sketched out the fund last year. )Reuters/File(


Following approval by both the upper and lower house of parliament, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was due to sign off on the fund to complete Germany’s formal ratification process.
But five individuals filed a challenge, prompting the court to decide that the ratification “shall not be executed pending the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court on the temporary injunction application.”
The court gave only the first alphabet of each of the challengers’ names. The far-right AfD party had vowed to fight passage of the EU fund.
Lawmakers’ approval of the huge fund marked a breach in a German taboo against pooled debt.
German leaders have argued that it was necessary to get the bloc back on the road to growth after a pandemic that has ravaged the economy.
“The vote is a clear signal for European solidarity and strength,” said Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, stressing that it was in Germany’s interest that the entire bloc emerged strong from the crisis.

SPEEDREAD

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was due to sign off on the fund to complete Germany’s formal ratification process. But five individuals filed a challenge, prompting the court to decide that the ratification ‘shall not be executed pending the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court on the temporary injunction application.

“A powerful recovery in Europe is an important prerequisite for Germany’s own economic success and prosperity,” he said.
Along with French President Emmanuel Macron, Chancellor Angela Merkel had sketched out the fund last year, which eventually was agreed upon by the EU’s 27 members in December as part of a €1.8 trillion budget up to 2027.
The move to offer loans and outright grants to EU countries hit hardest by the pandemic, such as Italy, smashed long-held stereotypes of Germany as a “frugal” country staunchly opposed to taking responsibility for others’ debt.
But faced with a pandemic which spared no one, Europe’s biggest economy crossed several red lines to pull itself out of a crippling recession.
It also suspended a constitutional rule that blocks the government from incurring new debt for 2020 and 2021.
Berlin, which intends to borrow a record €240.2 billion in 2021, is now seeking a halt to the no-new-borrowings rule for a third consecutive year in 2022.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1832626/business-economy

ALSO READ:

11 Dec 2020: EU countries agree historic €1.8tn budget and recovery package

Friday, 26 March 2021

Australia’s $1 Billion Wine Industry In Trouble – China Officially Slaps 218.4% Import Duties For 5 Years Effective Sunday

 O    

 dumping and subsidies  

  punishment 

Trade War - China Officially Imposed 220% Tariffs on Australia Wine

 anti-dumping tax   

 

 wine exporters,    

 

   stuck in warehouses  

Treasury Wine Estates - Penfolds Premium Brands
  wipe out 

 

 definitely collapse.   

 

   

Treasury Wine Estates Wine - China Market
  more than 99%.

 

 43% drop  

 

    


  

 

 “weapons inspector-like”  

 

 parroting   


 consumer boycott  

 

 wheat, barley, sugar, red wine, timber, wool, lobster and copper ores  

 

    


 formal complaint   

 

    

 

 does not oblige  

   

 

 A$135 billion  

 

Other Articles That May Interest You …

Western Brands Under Attack! - Here's Why Chinese Consumers Suddenly Boycott H&M And Nike Over Xinjiang Cotton

Western Brands Under Attack! – Here’s Why Chinese Consumers Suddenly Boycott H&M And Nike Over Xinjiang Cotton

If you boycott Xinjiang cotton, we'll boycott you - said an internet user. That angry Chinese consumer is just one of 1.4 billion consumers in China who has started a nationwide boycott of Swedish fashion giant H&M. However, the attack against the world's second-largest clothing retailer was fir [...]