Friday 31 July 2020

Michel Barnier warns Brexit deal is ‘unlikely’ as he accuses UK of being ‘unwilling to break the deadlock’

Senior news reporter, Yahoo News UK

Yahoo News UK23 July 2020

Michel Barnier has said a 'future relationship' Brexit deal with the UK is 'unlikely'. (European Commission)

Michel Barnier has warned a Brexit deal is “unlikely” after he accused the UK of being “unwilling to break the deadlock”.

It follows the latest round of talks seeking to agree a “future relationship” deal between the UK and EU beyond 31 December.

Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said talks remain at a stalemate: “We are still far away.”

At a press conference on Thursday, he accused Boris Johnson’s government of “not showing a willingness to break the deadlock”.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (L) gestures as he walks with EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as they prepare to address a press conference at a European Union Summit at European Union Headquarters in Brussels on October 17, 2019. (Photo by Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD / AFP) (Photo by KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images) — Boris Johnson and Michel Barnier pictured in October last year. (AFP via Getty Images)

He added: “Over the past few weeks the UK has not shown the same level of engagement and readiness to find solutions respecting the EU fundamental principles and interests.”

Barnier said there had been no progress on two key points: the “level playing field” to ensure fair competition between businesses, and fisheries.

“We have been saying the same thing since the very beginning of these negotiations,” he said.

“They were part and parcel of our engagement with Boris Johnson eight months ago [when the UK and EU agreed a Brexit blueprint]. We are simply asking to translate this political engagement into a legal text, nothing more.

“The time for answers is quickly running out.

"By its current refusal to commit to open and fair competition, and to a balanced agreement on fisheries, the UK makes a trade agreement – at this point – unlikely."

The UK, after leaving the EU on 31 January, is in a “transition period” in which the two sides have until 31 December to agree their future relationship.

During the transition period, the UK effectively remains a member of the EU. It could have been extended for up to two years but Michael Gove “formally confirmed” the UK wouldn’t seek an extension last month.

Barnier also warned the EU and UK have until “October at the latest” to strike a deal or risk the imposition of quotas and tariffs.

He said: “If we do not reach an agreement on our future partnership there will be far more friction.

“For instance, on trading goods – in addition to new customs formalities there will be tariffs and quotas.

“This is the truth of Brexit... and I will continue to tell the truth.

EU chief warns UK must obey European principles ...

EU chief warns UK must obey European principles to achieve Brexit deal

James Morris

Senior news reporter, Yahoo News UK

Yahoo News UK19 June 2020

Ursula von der Leyen has warned the UK needs to obey EU principles in order to achieve a Brexit “future relationship” deal.

Von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, warned Boris Johnson at a press conference on Friday: “We have to bridge wide divergences which remain to be solved.

“The topics are known: level playing field, fisheries, governance, the scope of our police and judicial co-operation.

“These are important points for the EU because these are principles – fair competition, rising social standards, protecting our citizens and the rule of law – at the heart of the EU.”

Negotiations between the UK and EU for a post-Brexit future relationship deal have stalled.

Johnson, having previously delegated to his chief negotiator David Frost – is set to take part in talks himself later this month.

Von der Leyen promised the EU will do “everything” to reach a “one-of-a-kind” agreement with the UK.

Her comments came after EU leaders met via video conference on Friday for the latest European Council summit.

The UK, after leaving the EU on 31 January, is currently in a “transition period” in which the two sides have until 31 December to agree their future relationship.

During the transition period, the UK effectively remains a member of the EU.

Last week, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove “formally confirmed” the UK won’t seek an extension to the transition period.

There is mounting concern among business – already hit hard by the fallout from the pandemic – at the prospect of a “cliff edge” break to the UK’s remaining access to the EU single market with no new deal to replace it.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-news-latest-uk-deal-131257312.html

'China is powerful now': Beijing's aggressive global stance ...

'China is powerful now': Beijing's aggressive global stance sparks wave of nationalism

Lily Kuo in Beijing

The Guardian31 July 2020

For days, the US consulate in the Chinese city of Chengdu was not just a site for curious onlookers but for residents eager to express pride in their country. Some waved the Chinese flag while others set off fireworks. In one video, a woman said she was “extremely happy” to see the consulate close. “We have kicked out one more hub for spies!” she said, smiling as she pointed at the building.

In another video, widely circulated on Chinese social media, a CNN reporter attempting to broadcast is drowned out by a group belting out a patriotic Chinese song. The crowd sings cheerfully, if discordantly: “Praising our beloved motherland as it goes towards prosperity and power.”

Residents noted how different the scene was to one in 1999, when thousands of Chinese protesters descended on the US embassy in Beijing, after the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Crying and pelting the building with eggs, stones, and any other objects they could find, demonstrators were angry at the US but also frustrated at how little their government could do to retaliate.

“Our country is not like before. We can do more than just make statements, we can actually take action,” says Wu, 25, who lives in Chengdu and visited the consulate on its last day on Monday, snapping a few photos to keep. “Back then China couldn’t afford to offend the US, but China is powerful now and not afraid of American imperialism.”

As China finds itself under attack abroad as a result of its increasingly aggressive global stance, nationalist sentiment at home appears to be growing stronger. Officials have honed support with the usual tools of propaganda and patriotic education, as well as new tactics, such as “wolf warrior” diplomacy, characterised by aggressive attacks on the country’s foreign critics.

Yet, cultivating a sense of nationalism that puts China increasingly at odds with much of the western world, also threatens to make current frictions more intractable, driving it closer to conflict with countries such as the US, its main rival. Beijing is locked in disputes with the UK, Australia and Canada over issues from Huawei to Hong Kong, and has blamed the US for those tensions.

“On both sides, the nationalist sentiment is stronger than ever before. There is no doubt that antagonistic nationalism has dramatically increased to a level that many have never seen,” says Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations and director of the centre on American studies at Renmin University of China. “This may mean the government policies will become more antagonist towards each other.”

Nationalism has long been a double-edged sword for the Chinese leadership – useful to bolster the ruling party’s standing but dangerous when emotions run too high. Anti-Japanese protests over a territorial dispute in 2012 turned into a riot, with residents in Shenzhen flipping and smashing Japanese cars. An editorial in the state-run China Daily at the time said: “This type of ‘patriotism’ will never receive applause.”

In the years since, Chinese officials have promoted nationalism rooted in “positive energy”, a general outlook of optimism and confidence in the country. Meanwhile, they have further narrowed the space for public discussion with more censorship and regulation of the internet, including detaining users.

“The Chinese government has increasingly leaned on nationalist rhetoric to justify its rule, while also keeping grassroots nationalism on a much tighter leash,” says Jessica Chen Weiss, associate professor of government at Cornell University and author of the book, Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China’s Foreign Relations.

“To some extent, the government has been able to use tough talk and bluster to appease domestic audiences, but swagger has real downsides for China’s foreign policy objectives.”

Pro-China activists step on photographs of US President Donald J. Trump and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, outside the US Consulate in Hong Kong — Pro-China activists step on photographs of Donald Trump and secretary of state Mike Pompeo outside the US Consulate in Hong Kong. Photograph: Jérôme Favre/EPA

To people like Liu, 50, who runs a software company in Beijing, this has meant that nationalist views appear more prevalent than they truly are among the general population.

“Because of these controls, the voices that are allowed are the nationalist ones. So they are louder and recently, they are becoming more and more extreme,” he says.

As someone who depends on access to the US and other countries for his work, he has watched the deteriorating relationship with the US with dismay. He believes that many, like him, are worried and do not want to see their country so combative.

“We are really despairing because we can’t express our views. It’s like we are on a train that has lost control and there is nothing we can do but let it barrel forward,” he says.

Still, Chinese leaders may also not wish to see things out of control. Chinese state media have kept a close lid on topics such as a recent border clash with India, an incident that could easily have caused a wave of national anger. Chinese officials, while loudly condemning the US for ordering the Chinese consulate in Houston to close, have limited threats to promising an “equal response” to US actions.

“Chinese authorities were quick to clamp down on any sign of protest outside the US consulate in Chengdu, reflecting Beijing’s apparent desire to retaliate in a way that shows resolve but does not accelerate the current death-spiral in US-China relations,” says Weiss.

As the deadline for the Chengdu consulate’s closure loomed on Monday, consulate staff rushed to clear the compound, including a garden planted by American and Chinese stuff. A banner with the words, “Thank you, Chengdu, 1985-2020” was ordered. At dawn, the American flag was lowered for the last time.

Wu arrived that night, hours after the consulate was officially shut. It was late and the street, blocked off by police, was quiet but a crowd remained. Most were looking at the scene or taking photos.

Wu, who had come to “witness history”, says there was still a feeling of unease about the closure. Born and raised in Chengdu, a place known for being laid-back and more open, he believes his city has always been friendly to foreigners.

“I think most people feel this is a little negative. Even though we closed the consulate, we still feel some regret. The relationship between China and the US shouldn’t be like this.”

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/china-powerful-now-beijings-aggressive-042959502.html

Brexit red tape reality dawns on companies

New rules: A Toyota factory parking in Europe. The threat posed by post-Brexit rules to the UK operations of automakers such as Toyota could be existential. — AFP

LONDON: Specac Ltd makes laboratory equipment in the United Kingdom, selling more than 1,000 products worldwide and earning £1.8mil (US$2.3mil) exporting them tariff-free to the European Union (EU) each year.

Yet from January, Specac will be among the 120,000 exporters who have to prove the origin of their goods to qualify for duty-free access under any potential post-Brexit free-trade agreement. It’s a bureaucratic headache that’s about to menace £150bil worth of goods traded with the EU.

“It’s a hell of a lot of work, ” said David Smith, managing director at Specac, which has had staff on furlough due to the coronavirus pandemic. “It’s a huge burden to dig into your supply chain and find the ultimate source.”

The end of Britain’s customs union with the EU means UK firms will have to comply with “rules of origin” in order to trade with nations in the bloc once the Brexit transition period ends on Dec 31. Many have never had to identify the share of their exports that’s produced domestically, and if they can’t do it they’ll have to pay tariffs on goods shopped to the EU.

In addition to a new mountain of paperwork, a certificate of origin costs about £30 per shipment, according to the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. Companies that aren’t used to the burden of satisfying the requirements may decide not to trade with the EU at all, or find that compliance is so much hassle that they decide to just pay the tariff instead, Smith said.

The rules of origin requirement applies even if the UK and EU strike a free-trade accord this year, similar to the need to file customs declarations for the first time in decades (at a cost of about £13bil a year). Proving origin is a feature of the international trade system designed to prevent products entering a country without paying the appropriate customs duties.

And it’s not just smaller businesses who face this new challenge. The threat posed by post-Brexit rules of origin restrictions to UK operations of automakers such as Nissan Motor Co and Toyota Motor Corp, for example, which collectively employ about 10,000 people, could be existential.

That’s because trade agreements usually require about 55% of a good to be produced locally in order to qualify for zero-tariff treatment. Yet only about 20%-25% of the overall value of cars produced in the UK originates domestically, according to research group UK in a Changing Europe.

True, carmakers are accustomed to handling rules of origin paperwork for international trade. But they would be hit by tariffs if the UK and EU don’t strike a deal that counts the inputs from their continent-spanning supply chains as “local” to Britain, as they do under the status quo.

The final agreement “will make the difference between continuing to make cars in the UK or being left with a very big empty shed, ” said Nigel Driffield, a professor of strategy and international business at Warwick Business School. “Rules of origin are going to be a massive issue.”

Even the famous Mini Cooper would be in the firing line. Only about 40% of the value of the parts in the iconic vehicle, made by BMW AG at its factory near Oxford, are produced in the UK.

Given that it would be virtually impossible for Mini to replace European-made parts with UK-made ones by Jan 1, models exported from Britain would be on track to face a 10% tariff without an agreement on rules of origin.

“Price increases would be inevitable, with potential for reduced demand and therefore reduced production, ” Graham Biggs, a spokesman for BMW, said in an email.

Hopes hang on the UK and EU coming to an agreement on rules of origin in their ongoing trade talks. Britain has made an ambitious proposal that counts inputs as local provided they originate from the bloc or any country with which the UK or EU has a trade agreement.

The EU’s stance is more modest, and seeks to build on the existing approach it has with countries outside the bloc. Negotiators may propose that Britain joins an agreement it has with several other nearby countries, including Turkey, Switzerland and Norway, known as the PEM convention, where inputs are recognised as local between all the parties, according to Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform. Joining would address some of the concerns of UK businesses, Lowe said.

“The dream scenario is that the EU accepts the UK’s proposal, but that seems unlikely, ” he said.

“The UK does have a legitimate issue: it’s going to be quite difficult to sell an FTA, or even to make compromises to achieve an FTA, if zero-tariff trade is not going to be available to lots of its exporters.”

Until white smoke emerges from the talks – which could extend into October with no guarantees of a deal – companies are left not knowing whether they’ll have to reorganise their supply chains to be able to export to the EU tariff-free post-Brexit.

“Carmakers only change suppliers when you change a model, so it can’t happen overnight, ” said Mike Hawes, chief executive officer of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

“Calculating rules of origin for a car with over 15,000 parts is a complex exercise that can take years to determine.”

A recent survey of the group’s members found the lack of clarity on trading conditions from Jan 1 is severely hampering nine in 10 companies’ ability to prepare for the end of the transition period. — Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/07/31/brexit-red-tape-reality-dawns-on-companies

Monday 27 July 2020

This Is Bigger Than COVID But Few People Are Paying Attention

This is bigger than Covid. But few people are paying attention.

by TDB - Jul 27, 2020 1:08 pm

I’m talking about conflict with China.

Most people realize that 2020 has thrust two game-changing trends upon us that will change the world for years to come.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

by Tyler Durden

Mon, 07/27/2020 - 19:45

The first is Covid.

In less than six months, this virus has created extreme global hysteria and economic devastation.

Countless businesses have gone bust or are teetering on the edge. Tens of millions of jobs have been lost.

Government debt around the world has exploded higher. And their heavy-handed abuse of power has been astonishing… often incomprehensible.

Politicians and public health officials have suspended many of our most fundamental freedoms, threatened to come into our homes and take our family members away, and even banished us from our own private properties.

We’ve also seen a breakdown in basic social conventions.

Family and friends have stopped gathering together in person out of fear that someone may be a carrier. Weddings and funerals are virtual. And a simple handshake is practically considered an act of biological terrorism.

And, just like 9/11 nearly two decades ago, many effects of Covid will never return to ‘normal’.

Then there’s the social justice movement… which tore onto the world stage two months ago with a desire to make important cultural changes.

At its core, the movement is virtuous. After all, it’s supposed to be about freedom.

But it has quickly become divisive, menacing, and pointlessly violent.

Everything is offensive. Intellectual dissent must be immediately squashed. People lose their jobs, receive death threats, or are censored, merely for expressing completely valid (and even supportive) opinions.

And some of the largest corporations in the world have all submitted to the Twitter mob, like Nazi collaborators in France who began goose-stepping with the Wehrmacht the moment Hitler took Paris.

History is being rewritten. Vocabulary is being replaced. And any civil discourse results in persecution.

Just like lingering Covid effects, this social turmoil will also be with us for years. Don’t fool yourself into believing it’s some some flash in the pan that will be over in a few weeks.

But what I wanted to tell you today is that there is a THIRD, major trend brewing right now. And it could prove to be even bigger than Covid, bigger than the social justice movement.

It’s not one that evokes the same emotion. So you won’t see too many people marching in the streets or cowering in fear in their homes. There’s no hysteria.

This third major trend is rational. And that’s why it’s largely been ignored. But its impact could be far bigger and longer lasting.

I’m talking about conflict with China.

Over the past several months we’ve witnessed a minor trade dispute between the United States and China escalating into a major diplomatic conflict, and now, into full-blow Cold War.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo left no doubt about this when he essentially declared cold war against China’s communist party in a speech late last week:

“If we bend the knee now, our children’s children may be at the mercy of the Chinese Communist Party, whose actions are the primary challenge today in the free world.

General Secretary Xi is not destined to tyrannize inside and outside of China forever, unless we allow it.

Richard Nixon was right when he wrote in 1967 that ‘the world cannot be safe until China changes.’Now it’s up to us to heed his words.

Today the danger is clear. And today the awakening is happening.

Today the free world must respond. We can never go back to the past.”

It’s pretty incredible how China has already managed to get most of the world to bend to its will.

There are so many examples of this; major US airlines like Delta and American, have scrubbed references to “Taiwan” on their websites so as not to offend the Chinese communist party.

Hollywood, despite constantly thrusting its woke social justice politics in everyone’s faces, refuses to utter the slightest criticism of China, simply so they can squeeze out more box office revenue there.

And the National Basketball Association squashed an executive for Tweeting support to Hong Kong protesters last year.

Even the league’s biggest and most outspoken star, Lebron James, meekishly told reporters that China has “a complicated issue with racial, socioeconomic and geopolitical layers” and that he saw “little upside in speaking up” against the Chinese communist party.

Comparing sports team owners to ‘slave owners’ is perfectly fine. But don’t say anything bad about China!

In addition to Pompeo’s speeech, the US-China conflict escalated last week when the US government ordered the Chinese to close its consulate in Houston, Texas.

The Chinese government retaliated by closing a US consulate in China.

This is after months of sanctions, asset seizures, tariffs, arrests, expelling of foreign journalists, and plenty of tension about the Coronavirus.

I know there’s a lot of fear that an actual shooting war will break out between the US and China. And that is a possibility.

I’m probably biased as a West Point graduate, but I’m convinced that the US Marine Corps and Army Rangers are the most proficient fighting forces in the world.

But the reality is that China has a bigger army. It’s better equipped with newer, better technology. Its tanks are superior, and it has more of them.

China has also been investing heavily in its Navy and Air Force; it already has more ships than the US Navy, and it has also rolled out a fifth-generation fighter jet, the J-20, to compete head-to-head against the US military’s F-22 and F-35.

But that’s just conventional warfare. The next war will be highly unconventional… and the Chinese are dominant in “system destruction warfare”.

They could take down the US power grid, hack multiple defense and intelligence networks, and remotely disrupt key US command and control elements, before a single shot was fired.

This is not my assessment; the Pentagon has been wargaming conflict between the US and China for years. And in the words of one researcher who has participated in these scenarios, the US “gets its ass handed to it.”

Fortunately, a shooting war is unlikely. Why would China want to invade the US and deal with 400 million guns in the hands of the civilian population?

Why would the US want to invade China and deal with another Vietnam war?

War doesn’t benefit either nation, and on that basis it’s possible… but not probable.

What is likely is a total reset in the global financial system.

The current “Bretton Woods” financial system in which the US economy and US dollar are at the center of the global economy is decades old.

The US has derived extraordinary wealth and prosperity from this system for years.

Bretton Woods is the reason why the US national debt can be nearly $27 trillion (over 100% of GDP) without the dollar collapsing in value.

It’s the reason why the Federal Reserve can conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air and keep interest rates at 0% for years, but still be taken seriously.

Losing this advantage would be nothing short of catastrophic for the US economy.

And continued conflict with China is the one thing that is practically guaranteed to make it happen.

That’s why this trend– conflict with China– could be the biggest thing happening right now.

It’s not as scary as Covid, it’s not as emotional as social justice... but the effects may be permanently devastating.

On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That's why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bigger-covid-few-people-are-paying-attention

BREXIT and beyond ....