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| Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images |
Nigel Farage has proved once again that his power comes not through being able to win seats in parliament — but his ability to stop the Tories.
Despite failing to win the Peterborough by-election Thursday, simply pushing the Conservatives into third place has done enough to spook even the most optimistic of Tory MPs.
In the election, sparked by the sacking of the former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya after she was convicted for perverting the course of justice, Labour’s new candidate Lisa Forbes snuck home 683 votes ahead of Farage’s Brexit Party in the traditional Labour-Tory marginal. Forbes won 10,484 votes to the Brexit Party's Mike Greene's 9,801.
The Tory candidate trailed on 7,243 votes.
If the Conservatives are now falling further behind Labour in pro-Brexit swing seats like Peterborough, what chance do they have in a general election?
One Tory minister has had private analysis produced — seen by POLITICO — showing that should the Brexit Party hold onto its current levels of support, the Conservatives could slump to as few as 50 seats at the next election.
The bottom line is that Farage poses an existential threat to the Tories’ grip on power so long as Brexit has not been delivered.
Reacting to the result, polling expert John Curtice said the Brexit Party is a “significantly disruptive force” and the Conservative Party could not tolerate the idea of holding an election anytime soon.
Speaking to the BBC Friday, Farage could not hide his disappointment at failing to take the seat, but continued to remind the Tory Party of the danger he still poses even in defeat.
“We came a very, very close second,” he said, adding: “But here’s the important thing ... I think what you’ve seen from this result last night is that British politics has fundamentally changed, it’s no longer just two parties contesting.
"Like it or not, something very significant happened here last night.”
Farage claimed his new party would only get stronger unless the Conservatives are able to deliver a no-deal Brexit in October.
“If we don’t leave and leave with a clean Brexit on the 31st of October, the Brexit Party will power on,” he said. “As a betting man I cannot see anybody standing in this Conservative leadership race who’s actually got the courage to take us out on the 31st of October on WTO terms."
In a sign of where British politics may well be heading, Farage refused to rule out an electoral pact with a new Tory leader committed to the hardest of hard Brexits — although he insisted it would not be him making the first move.
“They may have to come and do a deal with us,” he said. “Who’s to say? … I simply don’t believe a word they say.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-party-falls-short-but-sends-a-message-to-tories/