Saturday, 6 August 2022

The true impact of sanctions on Russia | DW Business Special

As Europeans suffer high energy costs and the prospect of a rough winter, some have begun to ask if Western sanctions against Russia were in fact an own goal. 

On the face of it, Russia’s economy is not going through the meltdown once predicted and Moscow continues to make billions from selling its oil and gas to the world.

However, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his team at Yale School of Management say the narrative that Russia is riding out the sanctions is false. 

Their own research suggests Russia’s economy is suffering much more severely than widely reported. In this DW Business Special we discuss his findings.


#russia #sanctions #economy

The true impact of sanctions on Russia | DW Business Special

833,611 views 
6 Aug 2022

Comments


Finally someone who actually know something about Russian economy and the impact of the sanctions on it in short and long term! Much appreciated. 👍 If only Greece wouldn't have opposed the sanction the EU wanted to impose on Reeders to ship Russian oil (40% is Greece's part of all shipping), Russia would be in real trouble to get
the oil to China and India out! Russia doesn't own a ships fleet/tankers itself! Now Rotterdam closed its haven for Russian oil (the biggest in Europe!), a nice move by the Netherlands! Lets wait until Russians turn in Putin and I hope they will bring him and his minions down. A way to end the war tho!!


I enjoy this man's easy to follow explanations and the sanctions take some time but once a critical threshold has been reached the effects will be ever note compounding and dustructive


Good interview - I speak Russian fluently and therefore I can find information about what is really happening in Russia with the economy. For example, about unemployment - it is difficult to record it in Russia, because the country is currently struggling to prevent a mass panic, even though they no longer need the workforce in many industries - so what do companies do - they don't completely fire employees, but transfer them to part-time jobs - and further, the Russian government tells everyone that everything is fine and that they have to spit on the sanctions, but in fact the situation in many sectors is already dramatic, even though the official date of implementation of many more sanctions is still ahead - such as for oil products and coal . Speaking of coal - yes, some countries would be willing to buy it from Russia, but they have to be transported to the Asian market - it is about 50 million tons of coal by rail - the Trans-Siberian highway is already almost 100% loaded and it is practically impossible to transport additional cargo, because for all these years, Russia has not invested in its logistics and transport infrastructure, but has instead spent money on the army, the Sochi Olympic Games and other projects that do not bring enough benefit to the country's economy.


Excellent reporting DW and professor. Sonnenfeld. I especially appreciate the work the professor and his team from Yale are doing to dispell the 'sanctions are not working' myth. I am also inspired to do some further research to identify one or more the 240 corporations who have chose to remain and keep business as usual operations in Russia. I don't know what
product Huntsman Chemical Co. to see if there is a product they make can be taken off my purchase list.


“Not the law of rulers but the rule of laws” . Exceptionally put.


@DW News • Another excellent interview. Basics like the ruble is holding steady because it's not being traded and the stock market has fallen 50% and probably won't fall lower because foreign investors aren't allowed to sell give helpful insights into the Russian economy. Monthly updates would be great.


Great interview. Interviewer has done great research to ask probing questions, and the questions were asked appropriately. I just wish for less interruption on Sonnenfeld. I am glad to hear Sonnenfeld dispell the foolish handwringing of journalists who depend on Russia's numbers to sing Russia's song that sanctions are not working.



So glad we finally have definitive data about what is going on rather than the "It's bad - it's not"arguments we've had up until now. In one way this is hardly a surprise - the entire consumer product industry leaves along with 80% of oil and gas and Russia gets stronger. GImme a break. With no foreign investment, tourism, spare parts, huge drop in oil and gas
what do they think will happen?


Thank-you for this interview. I think the reason why companies are pulling out is that they realize that Russia doesn’t have the rule of law. What’s the point of investing tens of millions of dollars over decades to expand one’s operation if the government is going to just suddenly tell you that they’ve seized your assets, can’t sell your investments, can’t exchange rubles for
other international currency, or if international sanctions are going to prevent you from easily doing business there?


Magd. S.
"Not the law of rulers but the rule of laws...!!" Fantastic phrase and oh so true... Am very glad that we are more united in the world that we are able to tacle these criminals with what there are busy : destroying another country., an very "unfriendly act" ...


It's sad. Russia had a lot of potential to integrate their economy with the rest of the world. The problem with dictator's is they never want to lose power and their mind is set on domination instead of integration. Putin probably loves all these western companies leaving its land but doesn't realize how this is isolating the country and its citizens.



For weeks, all companies in Russia have been forbidden by law to lay off employees. The reasons: 1.) the exorbitant unemployment in the country is to be covered up, 2.) the Russian state budget cannot provide for millions of unemployed people.
In this way, even companies that are still operating in Russia are being bankrupted by the Russian government. The longer this path is walked, the more catastrophic the end will be.



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