Friday, 12 May 2017

Death of '1.5m oldsters' could swing second Brexit vote, says Ian McEwan

At Brexit conference in London, author says ‘angry old men’ are shaping UK’s future and by 2019 the mood could be different

 Brexit policy editor

Friday 12 May 2017 
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2:18
 Ian McEwan: '1.5m oldsters in their graves' could swing second EU vote - video
The novelist Ian McEwan has suggested that the death of many elderly Brexit voters over the next two years would help swing a second referendum in favour of Britain staying in Europe.
“A gang of angry old men, irritable even in victory, are shaping the future of the country against the inclinations of its youth,” McEwan told a conference of remain supporters in Westminster.
“By 2019 the country could be in a receptive mood: 2.5 million over-18-year-olds, freshly franchised and mostly remainers; 1.5 million oldsters, mostly Brexiters, freshly in their graves,” he said.
The two-day Convention on Brexit and the Political Crash, organised by the journalist Henry Porter, struck a defiant opening note on Friday as politicians and artists debated whether any Brexit deal agreed by the government should be put before voters.
“How we voted almost a year ago is in a sense irrelevant as it is in the past,” said the activist and Brexit litigant Gina Miller in an opening speech. “Both remainers and leavers need to move on.”
“I will carry on remoaning until the whole thing is over,” said Alastair Campbell, the former Labour spin doctor, in a panel that featured heated clashes with the Tory MP Kwasi Kwarteng.
McEwan, known for his provocative views on Brexit, was in March forced to clarify remarks to a Spanish audience that were reported to have compared the referendum to the Third Reich, but on Friday he pulled no punches in a passionate speech.
“This country, like a depressed teenage self-harmer, takes out a razor to scour a forearm and now contemplates its own throat,” said the author.
“Truly, Brexit has stirred something not heroic or celebratory or generous in the nation, but instead has coaxed into the light from some dark, damp places the lowest human impulses, from the small-minded to the mean-spirited to the murderous.”
Gina Miller at the Convention on Brexit
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 Gina Miller at the Convention on Brexit. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA
The morning session of the conference also heard other points of view. Anand Menon, professor of European politics at Kings College, said efforts should be focused on softening Brexit rather than reversing it. “If we care about democracy, overturning the referendum is a profoundly dangerous thing to do,” he said.
Kwarteng said of the idea of a rerun: “People are completely deluded about this. For most people this ship has sailed and they want to move on. This is completely cloud cuckoo land. It’s insane.”
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McEwan said: “I belong to the smallest, saddest, most pessimist faction: I am a denialist. Almost a year on, I am still shaking my head in disbelief. I know it’s not helpful, but I don’t accept this near mystical, emotionally charged decision. How can it be that in a one-off vote, a third of the electorate have determined the fate of the nation for the next half-century?”
At a lunchtime session there was applause when one audience member called for non-violent direct action to “stop the underground, stop the buses”.
The musician and activist Bob Geldof said: “I loved [McEwan’s] rejectionism. Anger is a great animus. I heard too much reasoned debate this morning. I resent those who voted leave. There is too much hubris that infects the political class. Fuck them.”
Jarvis Cocker struck a more understanding note. “Fear makes people cling to what they have,” he told the convention. “People feel trapped, and when they feel trapped they lash out.”
He urged musicians to boycott political events like the Trump inauguration and said the anti-Brexit movement should celebrate openness rather than focusing on the threats.
“The resistance starts here and its slogan is fun not fear,” concluded the singer.

Wednesday, 10 May 2017

Nobody wants you back Tony

Tony Blair has spent so much time snuggling up to dictators since leaving office that he has forgotten what democracy means. His arrogant and clumsy attempts to overturn Brexit will only further discredit the anti-democratic Remain campaign. They're welcome to Toxic Tony, and they deserve him


Tony-blair-world-hunger
It's all about him
Jh_photo
Joseph Hackett
On 10 May 2017 10:05
Yes, it’s Tony Blair -- back despite popular demand. The former Prime Minister has once again hinted at creating a new movement aimed at blocking Brexit, although the British people will at least be relieved to hear he has ruled out an attempt to return to Parliament.
Considering how a YouGov poll in October said Blair would perform even worse than Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader these days, his decision to stay away from elections might be wise.
Blair’s lack of self-awareness, however, remains staggering. It is stunning how, after a decade away from politics in a lucrative career giving after-dinner speeches and advising tyrants, he cannot recognise his presence would actively harm the anti-Brexit movement.
Virtually everybody, with the possible exception of Blair himself, realises Blair is a toxic brand. He is one of the most widely-loathed politicians in the country. Yet he still seems to believe in his own almost Messianic ability to bend the British people to his will. He may be the last person in the country to think so.
With typical arrogance, Blair has gone beyond even the normal anti-democratic stance of demanding a second EU Referendum. He is not content just to revert to the classic Eurocrat tactics of asking the British people again and again until they come up with the ‘right’ answer. He has instead suggested Brexit could simply be blocked by a vote in Parliament -- a travesty of democracy, where a caste of politicians would overturn the clearly-expressed will of the people.
Blair’s contempt for democracy is plain for all to see. Perhaps this should not surprise us. After all, Blair has spent much of his time since leaving office advising brutal dictators like Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbayev and Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev.
Needless to say, in these countries the people never get in the way of the will of the politicians. Any unwanted voting results, if they ever see the light of day, are simply ignored or overturned, and extremely unpopular politicians are accountable to nobody.
Maybe Blair has spent so long advising these countries’ rulers, he just needs some time to adjust to British politics again.
Here’s a brief rundown for him. In Britain, we have a democratic Government, and a freely and fairly elected Parliament. The people’s will is respected.
Our government was elected in 2015 on the promise of holding an EU Referendum, having been forced into this by Nigel Farage and UKIP. Our Parliament then voted to hold such a Referendum, in which we freely and fairly voted for Brexit last year on June 23rd.
Then the Government committed itself to making our will a reality, and in March Parliament voted to respect the result and invoke Article 50. This is real democracy, Mr Blair. He might have forgotten what it means, but the Great British Public certainly have not.
Some of Blair’s few remaining supporters insist the anti-Blair comments of Brexiteers prove we are ‘scared’ of him. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, probably the only people who actually want Blair back are Brexit supporters, who cannot wait for him to sabotage the anti-Brexit movement by his sheer unpopularity.
Nobody is scared of Blair, except perhaps Remoaners who rightly worry he will derail their campaign. People just do not want him back. He deserves to be called out for his arrogance. The Great British Public are tired of him and the weak, anti-democratic arguments he makes.
Blair might do well to listen to the words of one of his old friends, Bernie Ecclestone. On Brexit, Bernie said “I think it's the best thing. We should be ruling ourselves.”
He painted a positive picture of post-Brexit Britain, saying “If we've got something to sell, and it's a good product at the right price, people will buy whether they are Chinese, Italian or German.”
As we Get Britain Out of the European Union, perhaps Blair should give up on his anti-Brexit crusade, and seek Bernie’s help in getting over the referendum result.
Joseph Hackett is a Research Executive at Get Britain Out
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6577/nobody_wants_you_back_tony

Nobody wants you back Tony

Tony Blair has spent so much time snuggling up to dictators since leaving office that he has forgotten what democracy means. His arrogant and clumsy attempts to overturn Brexit will only further discredit the anti-democratic Remain campaign. They're welcome to Toxic Tony, and they deserve him


Joseph Hackett
On 10 May 2017 10:05

Tony-blair-world-hunger
It's all about him

Yes, it’s Tony Blair -- back despite popular demand. The former Prime Minister has once again hinted at creating a new movement aimed at blocking Brexit, although the British people will at least be relieved to hear he has ruled out an attempt to return to Parliament.
Considering how a YouGov poll in October said Blair would perform even worse than Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader these days, his decision to stay away from elections might be wise.
Blair’s lack of self-awareness, however, remains staggering. It is stunning how, after a decade away from politics in a lucrative career giving after-dinner speeches and advising tyrants, he cannot recognise his presence would actively harm the anti-Brexit movement.
Virtually everybody, with the possible exception of Blair himself, realises Blair is a toxic brand. He is one of the most widely-loathed politicians in the country. Yet he still seems to believe in his own almost Messianic ability to bend the British people to his will. He may be the last person in the country to think so.
With typical arrogance, Blair has gone beyond even the normal anti-democratic stance of demanding a second EU Referendum. He is not content just to revert to the classic Eurocrat tactics of asking the British people again and again until they come up with the ‘right’ answer. He has instead suggested Brexit could simply be blocked by a vote in Parliament -- a travesty of democracy, where a caste of politicians would overturn the clearly-expressed will of the people.
Blair’s contempt for democracy is plain for all to see. Perhaps this should not surprise us. After all, Blair has spent much of his time since leaving office advising brutal dictators like Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbayev and Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev.
Needless to say, in these countries the people never get in the way of the will of the politicians. Any unwanted voting results, if they ever see the light of day, are simply ignored or overturned, and extremely unpopular politicians are accountable to nobody.
Maybe Blair has spent so long advising these countries’ rulers, he just needs some time to adjust to British politics again.
Here’s a brief rundown for him. In Britain, we have a democratic Government, and a freely and fairly elected Parliament. The people’s will is respected.
Our government was elected in 2015 on the promise of holding an EU Referendum, having been forced into this by Nigel Farage and UKIP. Our Parliament then voted to hold such a Referendum, in which we freely and fairly voted for Brexit last year on June 23rd.
Then the Government committed itself to making our will a reality, and in March Parliament voted to respect the result and invoke Article 50. This is real democracy, Mr Blair. He might have forgotten what it means, but the Great British Public certainly have not.
Some of Blair’s few remaining supporters insist the anti-Blair comments of Brexiteers prove we are ‘scared’ of him. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, probably the only people who actually want Blair back are Brexit supporters, who cannot wait for him to sabotage the anti-Brexit movement by his sheer unpopularity.
Nobody is scared of Blair, except perhaps Remoaners who rightly worry he will derail their campaign. People just do not want him back. He deserves to be called out for his arrogance. The Great British Public are tired of him and the weak, anti-democratic arguments he makes.
Blair might do well to listen to the words of one of his old friends, Bernie Ecclestone. On Brexit, Bernie said “I think it's the best thing. We should be ruling ourselves.”
He painted a positive picture of post-Brexit Britain, saying “If we've got something to sell, and it's a good product at the right price, people will buy whether they are Chinese, Italian or German.”
As we Get Britain Out of the European Union, perhaps Blair should give up on his anti-Brexit crusade, and seek Bernie’s help in getting over the referendum result.
Joseph Hackett is a Research Executive at Get Britain Out

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6577/nobody_wants_you_back_tony

Monday, 8 May 2017

Frexit in a decade? The real warning from France

The real story of France's elections for the European project is that mass opposition to the EU is now right at the heart of the French political agenda. France is probably where Britain was a decade ago. Frexit in 10 years, anyone?


Macron_victory
Macron has won, but France remains divided
The_commentator_logo_updated9
the commentator
On 8 May 2017 10:17
We had predicted two things about France's presidential elections: Emmanuel Macron would win, and the European political establishment would fail to understand that the result only served to underline the ongoing precariousness of its position.
Both turned out to be correct. Macron defeated Marine Le Pen by 66 percent to 34 percent; sighs of relief that the "populist surge" has been "defeated" have again echoed across the continent.
It was a similar story for the Austrian presidential elections last year when Alexander Van der Bellen defeated far right candidate Norbert Hofer by 54 percent to 46 percent. You really have to wonder what there is to celebrate when almost one in two people in the country which gave the world Adolf Hitler voted for a candidate with an ambiguous attitude to the country's Nazi past.
But this is modern Europe, and it is easier to live in fantasy world these days than confront the stark realities.
There are many things one could say about the French elections, but let us stick to the implications for the European Union.
For a start, more than a third of French voters opted for a candidate who would have effectively pulled the plug on French membership of the EU.
If you look at the first round of voting and add up Le Pen's tally with that of far Left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and other eurosceptic candidates, around 46 percent of French voters have cast their ballots in recent weeks in favour of politicians who would sink the European project as we know it.
Taking into account that not everyone who opted for people such as Le Pen and Melenchon makes a priority of ending France's current arrangements with the EU, it seems fair to say that in terms of the Europe question France is probably where Britain was about a decade ago: leaving the EU is still a minority ambition, but it is now right up there on the political agenda.
A couple of electoral cycles down the road, a bit more disillusionment with mainstream politics here, a crisis or two in the eurozone there, and it is not hard to imagine a confluence of forces which rips the heart out of the European project in a relatively short period of time.
Of course, if you bet on continuity you usually end up being right. But massive political upheaval in Europe is no longer the stuff of wild and fanciful speculation.
Yesterday, one in three French voters backed Marine Le Pen. She and her politics are down, but they're certainly not out.
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6572/frexit_in_a_decade_the_real_warning_from_france

Friday, 5 May 2017

Silliness on police, Brexit shows why Tories must win

Labour got itself into a muddle over police funding; the Financial Times produced a preposterous story about the Brexit bill being 100 billion euros. Neither bumbling errors nor fake news will stop Brexit, and only the Conservatives are fit and able to deliver


Euros
Not as much as it looks
6f37592038ebe4c2dc83c06bb82884256d790fa4
John Redwood MP
On 5 May 2017 11:46
This week we saw a couple of sets of fanciful figures intrude on the debate. There was Labour’s 10,000 police at £30 a year salary, hastily adjusted to £8,000 a year, still way below what we normally pay our officers.
Then there was the FT’s take on the EU bill for the UK leaving the Union, at Euro 100 billion.
The first sets of numbers were mistakes, and have been adjusted upwards as much Labour spending will need to be to make it realistic. £300 million a year is nearer the mark.
The second story that the UK owes up to Euro 100 billion is just silly. There are no legal obligations to pay beyond the sums we owe for our regular contributions over the next twenty two months before we leave.
If they want a political deal on money, then of course they would need to knock off our share of the assets. I don’t see that is a sensible or attractive way to proceed for them. They should just accept the Treaty that allows for no special bill.
The UK should continue to be friendly, outward going and positive about it all. We should continue to stress the great deal we are proposing for our future relationship.
Free access to our market for all their exporters. Guarantees for all their citizens living and working in the UK. Continued large UK contributions to the defence, security, research and culture of Europe.
Stable and strong leadership is needed by the UK, to be optimistic but to be firm in resisting silly proposals that have no basis in law or political reality.
The EU's disobliging briefings sound as if they are coming from people who suddenly realise their negotiating strategy of pressurising a member state into seeing it their way is not going to work. The EU thought the UK would want to stay in the Single market Custom Union. They could then seek to charge us for that.
It was always a silly assumption, as the UK clearly wants to make its own free trade agreements with the rest of the world which means leaving the Customs Union. The UK was also clear it wanted to stop paying the money. It is the Commission who are most worried about the loss of the UK’s contributions, as it’s their budgets and salaries that will suffer.
The way countries pay to trade with other reluctant countries is via tariffs. If the EU wants to put tariffs up against us, it can only do so to a limited extent under WTO rules. It would be a lot cheaper than the bills we are hearing about. In return we can impose more tariffs on them given the nature and volume of their exports to us.
That is why I have always thought it likely in the end they will want tariff free trade. It is, of course, always possible they wish to self harm. However, it seems it is more the EU Commission that favours a tough approach as the harm is to the member states, not to the Commission itself.
The member states are more likely to wake up to the harm it could do their export companies and especially their farmers and want a more sensible approach.
If the EU seriously thinks we need to give them money to be able to sell them goods, presumably they would need to give us money to sell us goods. I can’t see that idea catching on.
Mr. Redwood's writing is re-posted here by his kind permission. This and other articles are available at  johnredwoodsdiary.com
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6567/silliness_on_police_brexit_shows_why_tories_must_win