U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will try to revitalize her premiership at her party’s annual conference next week, with a cloud of uncertainty hanging over her country’s future - and her own.
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May is trying to win over critics and fend off plots from rivals who want to replace her after June’s failed election gamble. A poll Friday showed most members of the party want her out before the next election, 13 percent want her gone now.
A split between May and her Brexit Secretary, David Davis, over rumors of his leadership ambitions now threatens to complicate the work of her government - and the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union. May is already fighting to keep one potential opponent -- her Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson -- on side after he set out his own competing agenda for Brexit in recent weeks.
“A split at the top of the Tories over Brexit will mean yet more delay in trying to get to the meat of the negotiation,’’ said Ivor Gaber, professor of political journalism at the University of Sussex and a contemporary of Davis at Warwick University in the late 1960s. “The Europeans must look at Britain and despair.”
The Prime Minister travels to Manchester this weekend for the Conservative Party’s annual conference, against a backdrop of recriminations over her failed election gamble and divisions within her cabinet over Brexit policy.
After the election resulted in May losing her majority in Parliament, Tory lawmakers and ministers privately warned that she would not be allowed to lead the party into the next election in 2022. She has since insisted she will stay on and has begun to fight to keep her job.
Champagne and Ferrets
At weekends and during the recess, May has launched what’s becoming known as her Chequers charm offensive - inviting Tories to her 400-year-old official country residence 40 miles (64 kilometers) outside London for canapes, sparkling wine and home-made chocolates.
The Prime Minister has her work cut out. Tories remain angry about the organizational failures that led to the election, while an undercurrent of squabbling at the highest levels is hampering the business of government.
One Cabinet aide, speaking on condition of anonymity because the subject is sensitive, likens the party to ferrets fighting in a sack, and compares the mood to the dying days of former Tory Prime Minister John Major’s administration, when rows over Europe dominated the agenda.
A leading euroskeptic, Davis was a key adviser to May in the run-up to the election and among the most influential of her team in persuading her to call the early vote.
Davis Lurks
After the election, his name was repeatedly linked in the media to leadership speculation, with surveys of party members making him the most popular choice to replace May in the summer. Newspapers reported that Davis’s supporters were canvassing for a potential leadership bid on his behalf.
Tories who remain loyal to May say her team have lost trust in Davis as a result. May’s aides believe Davis could have shut down the leadership rumors if he had wanted to, according to people familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions were private.
In recent days May has moved to take control over Brexit policy from Davis’s department, poaching his most senior official Oliver Robbins to take a new role running EU policy within her inner team.
In Brussels, EU officials are said to be growing frustrated with Davis, believing him to be an obstacle in Brexit negotiations because he seems to take a more hard line stance than May. In her speech in Florence a week ago, May promised the U.K. would honor its commitments -- code for paying the Brexit bill.
Behind the Scene
But arriving for the latest round of talks in Brussels on Monday, Davis warned the U.K. would only settle the bill if the EU agreed a new trade deal at the same time. Behind closed doors, too, Davis was said to have taken a more combative tone than May in talks, according to a person familiar with the matter who declined to be named because the discussions were private.
According to one minister, the Tories are facing a bleak future because Jeremy Corbyn’s radical socialist Labour Party is surging ahead in the polls, while all of the potential candidates for the Tory leadership have major drawbacks.
Johnson led the field of potential candidates in a poll of Tory members, who elect the party’s leader, in the Times on Friday, but he’s seen as divisive in the wider country because he was the figurehead of the Leave campaign in 2016, the minister said.
Home Secretary Amber Rudd, another possible candidate, is vulnerable to being unseated at the next election, with a majority of just 346 votes in her own district.
Lunch Guests
While trying to outrun her challengers, May also needs to keep the support of rank-and-file Tory members of Parliament in order to stay in place.
Before the election, May’s office in 10 Downing Street ran a tight ship, strictly controlling access to the premier and enforcing iron discipline on the rest of the party. Since she lost her majority, however, the tables have turned.
“The Prime Minister’s team are working hard to keep the party united,” said Andrew Bridgen, a Conservative member of Parliament.
May’s new chief of staff Gavin Barwell hosts regular consultation lunches with Tories. Guests are invited to dine at the famous casket-shaped cabinet table, on meals of sandwiches, potato chips and soft drinks. That’s a change from is combative predecessors, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill.
“These things are important now that we have lost our majority,” said Bridgen. “In adversity, we must all hang together, or we will all hang separately.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-29/u-k-s-may-fights-tory-plotters-with-brexit-casting-long-shadow