Vague declaration on future ties would help Theresa May avoid ‘no deal’ departure
The EU is willing to “fudge” crucial Brexit negotiations — and offer Britain a vague blueprint for future ties with the bloc — if it helps Theresa May avoid a “no deal” outcome and win parliamentary backing for a withdrawal treaty.
The development comes as the UK prime minister steps up talks with EU leaders, including a meeting with France’s Emmanuel Macron this week.
Since the start of talks last year, Brussels, Berlin and Paris have stressed the need for a “political declaration” on future relations that would unambiguously make clear what kind of trade relationship the EU and the UK will have after Brexit. Formal trade talks will begin only after Britain is scheduled to leave on March 29 next year.
But the disarray in British politics, as Mrs May contends with opposition from both Eurosceptic and pro-EU MPs, has convinced senior EU figures a change of tack might be needed. At present, they fear there is a “50-50 chance” of a draft withdrawal agreement being rejected by the House of Commons.
“The priority is to get the withdrawal agreement done. That will be the dignified farewell,” said one senior EU diplomat closely involved in Brexit talks. “The rest we can see after Brexit.
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The declaration on future ties will not be a formal treaty, in contrast with the withdrawal agreement, which spells out legally binding divorce terms on money, citizen rights and the Irish border.
A fudge would make the declaration an aspirational statement designed to placate Westminster’s warring factions, rather than a blueprint for future trade talks.
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British officials are convinced that Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is helping soften the EU’s approach after a more positive meeting with Mrs May earlier this month. One UK official said the chancellor was ready to give Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, “more freedom” to close a deal.
The UK is now concentrating its efforts on Mr Macron, whom Mrs May is set to meet at his Fort de Brégançon island retreat this week.
Another senior EU official said: “The political declaration cannot violate our principles. But with the rest, whatever helps pass a withdrawal bill is fine.” A third EU government minister handling Brexit said: “We will do what is necessary to save the withdrawal treaty”.
Under such an approach, diplomats think the political declaration could include references to exploring unprecedented models of future co-operation.
The senior EU diplomat said this might include references to the hybrid models for customs that Britain claims would allow it to maintain both frictionless trade with the EU and an independent trade policy.
The main condition would be a watertight backstop arrangement, enshrined in the withdrawal treaty, to avoid a hard border dividing the island of Ireland under all circumstances. Such measures would in practice keep much of Northern Ireland’s economy under EU legal control, something Mrs May has said is intolerable.
“As long as you have the backstop, then you say in the new partnership declaration we will strive for a customs partnership that will make the backstop irrelevant,” said the senior EU diplomat. “You can strive for many things.”
The political declaration cannot violate our principles. But with the rest, whatever helps pass a withdrawal bill is fine
Senior EU diplomat
The diplomat added: “You can talk about many things because the backstop is the insurance if all these nice perspectives don't work out.”
While EU diplomats acknowledge there has been a change of tone from Berlin, they say London is over-interpreting a change of tactics by Germany.
Berlin had initially sought a statement that was “clear [in its overall direction] but not detailed”, according to one senior eurozone government official involved with the process, while Britain was asking for an agreement that was “detailed but unclear”.
A compromise could be an aspirational but short political declaration. “A lot will depend on what line May takes,” said the senior EU official. “Does she go for a more granular and detailed version or think fudge will help me here as well? The more that they insist on putting certain issues in the text, probably the more we will have to put in conditions.”
Negotiators in Brussels have noted that Mrs May’s white paper on future relations states that Britain will seek a “free trade agreement” with the EU. The EU negotiators will be using that traditional model as the base template for any declaration.
By doing so, the EU side is in effect disregarding other parts of the UK vision, which aim to recreate the advantages of participation in the EU’s single market for goods and the customs union. Such measures, if acknowledged, would be cast as ideas to be discussed after Brexit.
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Scepticism over Mrs May’s vision remains high in many EU capitals. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has sharply criticised Britain’s hybrid proposals, saying the EU “cannot and will not” delegate the enforcement of its customs system to a non-member that is outside its governance regime.
At a recent internal discussion between EU27 member states, no country spoke up in favour of Britain’s customs ideas, according to two officials present. Several EU negotiators have told the Financial Times the proposals are “unworkable”.
Brussels sees some questions as impossible to fudge. This includes Britain’s counter-proposal on the backstop of a temporary UK-wide customs arrangements to avoid checks across the Irish Sea.
Some EU negotiators worry that a vague statement on future relations will store up trouble. “Creating a big fudge via a political declaration will create the impression that there is some kind of link into the single market where in reality there is not,” one negotiator said, while adding. “Politicians will love kicking the can down the road.”
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