Michael Gove will hold emergency talks with an EU representative this morning with the Brexit negotiations at a new low. The consequences could affect far more than just trade.
 | Thursday September 10 2020 |
Front Bench Good morning. Michael Gove will hold emergency talks with an EU representative this morning with the Brexit negotiations at a new low. The consequences could affect far more than just trade. |
|
Emergency talks as Brussels considers suing London |  | By Daniel Capurro,
Front Bench Editor |
| Fresh from announcing new restrictions on the public and possibly cancelling Christmas (more on that below), Boris Johnson will return at least part of his attention to what could be a crucial 24 hours for Britain’s relationship with the EU.
Following the publication of the Internal Market Bill, which the Government admitted was in breach of international law by undermining key aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement, the EU is furious. Officials reportedly see this as Britain attempting to deliberately blow up negotiations, and are angry that three years of intense effort might have been wasted.
Bloomberg reports that Brussels is considering legal action against the UK which could be launched even before the Bill passes. Europe could also attempt to impose financial sanctions on Britain, once the transition period is over, through the dispute resolution mechanism of the Withdrawal Agreement.
A deal is not entirely dead just yet. The European Commission has sent Maroš Šefčovič, the Slovak commissioner, to London for emergency talks with Michael Gove. Meanwhile the final day of this round of official talks between David Frost and Michel Barnier, the UK and EU’s chief negotiators, is still set to take place.
Does the UK really want the talks to collapse? There have been suggestions that Johnson has been trying to push the EU to pull the plug so that he can avoid the blame – although where admitting to breaking the law fits into such a scheme is unclear. Brussels, however, remains determined, as it has done throughout the process, not to be the one to call time on negotiations.
Would Johnson choose to walk away? Certainly, there are whispers that he might. Still, when push came to shove last year he caved to Brussels on the Irish border rather than opt for no deal.
This time might be different, however. For one, he has a solid majority in Parliament which has no intention of blocking no deal. And he still has the European Research Group of hardline Brexiteers placing pressure on him. Yesterday they threatened to force the Government to go further in repudiating the Withdrawal Agreement.
On top of that, the economic difference between the deal Johnson wants to agree to and no deal is also much smaller, meaning the incentive to do a deal is smaller too.
The main constraint would seem to be a reputational one. Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives in Washington, warned: “If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress. The Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be proudly defended in the United States Congress.”
That trade agreement was already pretty much dead for a number of reasons both domestic and American, but it really wouldn’t be a good look for Britain if its most important ally considered it unworthy of a trade deal. (The re-election of Donald Trump would make little difference considering that the Democrats are nailed-on to keep control of the lower house in November’s election.)
The next 24 hours, then, could come to define not just UK-EU relations, but post-Brexit Britain’s image on the global stage. |
|
