BRITAIN'S booming economy has humbled top economists, as it is revealed how epically wrong so-called experts were about the impact of the vote to leave the European Union (EU).
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| Two thirds of economists were wrong about how Brexit would impact the economy |
About two-thirds of economists surveyed by the Financial Times at the start of 2016 warned a vote to leave the EU would damage the UK's short-term output.
The ‘respected’ experts predicted that uncertainty would block household spending and business investment, leading to a downturn.
The Treasury, Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were also among the economic elite that participated in financial scare-mongering over a Leave vote, including a stock market and house price crash.
In fact, spending has surged since the referendum and key segments of the economy reached multi-year highs in expansion.
Britain's stock markets have also reached record highs, while house prices continue to surge.
Kevin Dowd, member of Economists for Brexit group, said: “This latest review of dismal economic Brexit forecasting comes as no surprise, given that the overwhelming majority of economists and supposedly respected bodies have been proven spectacularly wrong on the short-term impacts of Brexit.
"Mostly, these forecasts were based on the poorly-evidenced effects of supposed policy ‘uncertainty’ and expected lower growth potential outside the EU.
"As it turned out, the economy had a strong head of steam going into the vote and a positive recovery in the weeks and months following, with GDP figures in particular demonstrating that uncertainty has not undermined economic performance.
"What is most concerning is that these very same economists appear to be wedded to a set of forecasts which see the UK economy shrinking in relative terms over the long-term, based on flawed models and entirely misleading assumptions."
In further evidence that scare-mongering experts were wrong, economic growth jumped to 0.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2016 - the three months immediately following the vote.
This compares to growth of 0.2 and 0.6 per cent in the first quarter and second quarters, respectively.
The most recent data indicates that fourth quarter growth will be at a similar level of around 0.5 per cent.
Output in the all-important service sector, which accounts for around 75 per cent of Britain's economy, reached it's highest level in 17-months in December.
At the same time, manufacturing expansion reached a two and a half year high.
The experts will be proved wrong again, according to establishment critics who say Britain's economy can continue to power through Brexit negotiations after Article 50 is triggered.
John Redwood, chief global strategist at Charles Stanley, said: “Many UK economists have been forced to eat their words following incorrect forecasts last year.
“These economists are predicting yet more gloom for 2017 despite evidence to the contrary."
The majority of experts are forecasting a slowdown because they believe rising inflation will slow spending and Brexit uncertainty will kick-in to hurt business investment. At the same time, manufacturing expansion reached a two and a half year high.
The experts will be proved wrong again, according to establishment critics who say Britain's economy can continue to power through Brexit negotiations after Article 50 is triggered.
John Redwood, chief global strategist at Charles Stanley, said: “Many UK economists have been forced to eat their words following incorrect forecasts last year.
“These economists are predicting yet more gloom for 2017 despite evidence to the contrary."
But Mr Redwood said: "We disagree with these forecasts and are optimistic about growth this coming year.
"Firstly, we believe that the rise in inflation will be limited and incomes will rise.
"As a result, retail sales will continue to increase, bolstered by the competitive world goods market.
"This, in turn, will lead to the more pessimistic large companies investing more inwardly to keep up with the buoyant UK consumer.
“The UK is still the fastest-growing major advanced economy in the world alongside the USA.
"If Trump cuts taxes and spends more as he has promised, the stronger US economy will boost the UK. So let’s hope the forecasters cheer up a bit and start getting their predictions right for a change.”
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/750641/Brexit-bashing-economists-admit-they-got-it-wrong
