Monday, 26 June 2017

The Jeremy Corbyn surge is real, and Labour is transformed

But Corbyn’s surge is real, and not limited to festival-goers. Drilling into the post-election data, it’s clear ... Simon Fletcher The trail that Jeremy Corbyn blazed at Glastonbury this weekend is not the normal ... Corbyn” song, at one point led by Stormzy, he has lived up to his rule not to play by the rules. 


SIMON FLETCHER Jeremy Corbyn’s former chief of staff and campaign director | June 26th 2017

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Mass appeal: Jeremy Corbyn wooed the thousands attending Glastonbury at the weekend Getty Images

The trail that Jeremy Corbyn blazed at Glastonbury this weekend is not the normal one for a potential prime minister. Treated as a conquering hero, his name chanted in the “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” song, at one point led by Stormzy, he has lived up to his rule not to play by the rules. 
Yet it is only a year since most of Corbyn’s parliamentary colleagues sought to remove him as leader. They are now making big decisions based on this new, more Corbyn-friendly world. 
Youth was not the whole story in the recent general election. You can’t secure 40 per cent of the electorate on a youth vote alone. But Corbyn’s surge is real, and not limited to festival-goers. Drilling into the post-election data, it’s clear Labour not only won an absolute majority of young people but secured support most strongly of all among the least well-off of the very youngest voters. The future is being born before our eyes — these are people who may well stay Labour voters for years to come.
This is not how this June was meant to be. Post-election leadership challenges were being prepared. The only question was when, not whether: some feared an early challenge would backfire as it did last time. Rumours that there would be an attempt to overturn the one member, one vote leadership rules were circulating. Instead it is Theresa May, not Corbyn, who cannot be sure of staying in her job.
Experienced and well-connected Labour figures — who call themselves moderate — describe almost depression among their group at the outcome: not outright victory but Corbyn safe as leader. They can’t, and won’t, leave the party but don’t see what they can do. 
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Cult hero: Jeremy Corbyn on stage at Glastonbury (Getty Images)
Others, including parliamentarians of an impeccable New Labour pedigree, privately take a different view. Winning seats has galvanised those who had been sunk in gloom.
In reality the non-Corbynites, including those who joined the bid to oust him last summer, are diverse. There are total irreconcilables — a small band inside and outside Parliament but real nonetheless. There are those unhappy with the leader or his politics who are primarily Labour tribalists and realise that the next election could be winnable. There’s a small group in the parliamentary party that does not agree with Corbyn but would play in his team to promote its own prospects. And there are those who have undergone a full or partial conversion, or are intellectually engaged with what they see as a fascinating moment. 
Always strategic, Lord Falconer was quick to say, as the prospect of a hung Parliament came into view, “that’s the end of May and there will be another election within 18 months. This is a very substantial change of direction for the country”. Falconer’s assessment represents what many are thinking. 
One senior Labour MP, not a core Corbynite by any stretch, told me that the atmosphere in the parliamentary party is transformed. Their argument goes like this. The viscerally anti-Corbyn group of MPs was small but very noisy. Most MPs took the view that his landslide election as leader was interesting enough but feared he could not win. Many allowed their mood to be led by their noisier, more openly hostile colleagues. Now Labour has advanced, this dynamic has dissipated. 
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Popular appeal: Corbyn address the crowds at Glastonbury
It is a moment of confusion. MPs who were anti-Corbyn now have bigger majorities from a surge that would not have happened without him. 
So power resides with Corbyn, and most non-Corbynites are more willing to be led by him than before. Of course there are going to be limits to that. The strongest component of the new consent is based on the public connection with Corbyn himself. 
There is barely any dispute over Labour’s domestic agenda. Opposition to austerity is now largely accepted. There is, however, potential tension over Brexit. MPs of all perspectives fear that some of them might try to turn an argument about membership of the single market into a running point of difference with the leadership. Most would rather leave European infighting to Mrs May and keep their powder dry. By focusing on opposition to hard Brexit, Labour trod a careful path in the election. Few want to leave that now. 
Look at the reaction to the reshuffle to see the mindset. There is little or no grumbling that figures such as Chuka Umunna and Yvette Cooper were passed over, despite speculation about their return. In previous reshuffles critics would have taken to the airwaves. Even habitual grumblers cannot protest about the man who got the Northern Ireland job — Owen Smith. What better way to widen the tent than including the man who challenged the leader last year? 
Among many parliamentarians who self-define as moderate, the talk is that the election has finished off leadership challenges. Corbyn has detoxified himself with much of the electorate, they believe, and must retain his insurgent tone while finding a way to speak to those voters the party must win over next time. The debate about how to do that should give all wings of the party something useful to say. 
Corbynistas and non-Corbynistas were equally delighted with the result, the pragmatists say, and there is little doubt that for the vast majority that is true. Tom Copley, from the London Assembly, a consistent critic of Corbyn, summarised the new spirit after the election: “I didn’t think a Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn could gain seats,” he tweeted. “I was wrong. I’ve never been happier to be wrong.” 
Labour can often be a fractious family but it is one that also constantly yearns for unity in action. Such a moment is offered right now. 
Simon Fletcher was Jeremy Corbyn’s chief of staff and campaign director.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/simon-fletcher-the-jeremy-corbyn-surge-is-real-and-labour-is-transformed-a3573131.html