Front Bench
I hope you had a nice weekend. Perhaps, like me, you escaped the metropolitan hubbub for the peace of the countryside. That’s what plenty of Tory MPs did last week, only, rather than peace and quiet, they got it in the neck from their constituency chairmen.
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| The PM only needs to make it to Thursday CREDIT: SIMON DAWSON/REUTERS |
Because, amid all the hullabaloo of Donald Trump’s visit, Westminster politics went on as usual (or at least, what’s usual for these bizarre times). That meant MPs heading back to their constituencies to gauge the strength of sentiment over Theresa May’s Brexit plan.
As will come as no surprise, it wasn’t all favourable. That’s made May’s top team worried – Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, and Gavin Barwell, May’s chief of staff, held a conference call with voluntary party members to gauge the mood among the grassroots.
– Enemies on all sides –
It’s become quite clear this morning that the Chequers deal has enemies on all sides. That’s no surprise when it comes to the Brexiteers, who are ramping up their efforts to fight it – more on that in a moment – but now prominent Remainers are making their feelings clear. Justine Greening, the former education secretary, has written in The Times to call for a second referendum that offers May’s deal, no deal, and staying in the EU to voters. She reportedly has the backing of former Cabinet colleagues Amber Rudd and Damian Green.
– Friends of inconvenience –
That will worry Downing Street, because, while the Prime Minister's deal was always going to create some rather angry Brexiteers, the more dangerous Remainer rebellion looked to have been killed off, and even the likes of Anna Soubry were embracing the Chequers plan. The other thing that will have Downing Street fretting – and the thinking behind phoning up constituency figures – is the extent to which those MPs without a Brexit religion feel obliged to turn on the deal. That was the case with Maria Caulfield and Ben Bradley, who resigned as party vice-chairs, while May has suffered another (minor) resignation, from Robert Courts. The MP for David Cameron’s old seat of Whitney has quit as a parliamentary private secretary to the Foreign Office in order to be able to vote against the Government. –
– The Rebel Alliance –
With Steve Baker (aka Rebel Commander) back on the backbenches, the Brexit hardcore is getting its act together. As Christopher Hope of our lobby team uncovered yesterday, Baker is coordinating the effort against May’s Brexit deal through a 100 MP strong WhatsApp group where he sends out voting orders.
That will be crucial today when votes begin on the trade bills necessary to see Brexit through Parliament. This was meant to be a big showdown with Remainers, but with the Chequers deal flipping it all on its head, the votes will now offer a chance for a Brexiteer show of strength.
– Back to the compromise board –
Labour won’t back the four amendments, tabled by Jacob Rees-Mogg, so they have no chance of passing. However, eurosceptic MPs will use it as a chance to show Downing Street their numbers, which could be as many as 20-30 rebels.
No10 may have blinked already, with The Sun reporting that they will concede to three of the amendments (which rule out an Irish Sea border, require the UK to have a separate VAT policy, and insists on fresh legislation if the UK is to remain in the customs union) in exchange for the fourth, which would kill off May’s customs plan by ruling out collecting tariffs on the EU’s behalf, being withdrawn.
That might just prove enough.
– The Newspaper Front –
The Brexiteers are also continuing their coordinated media plan. David Davis has written in the FT to detail the Dexeu white paper he claims May ditched, but which he still believes to be workable. His former adviser, Stewart Jackson, has spoken to The Times, and told them it was a “long-planned coup” by No10. Meanwhile, Andrea Jenkyns has repeated her call for May to go in an interview with The Telegraph.
Oh, and Boris Johnson has returned to his Daily Telegraph column after two years in Cabinet, although he appears to be keeping his powder dry for a potential resignation speech in the Commons on Wednesday (Davis has his today), and skirts around Brexit.
– Still no way out –
However much either side coordinates their campaigning, only one thing remains clear – there is no majority in Parliament for a hard Brexit, but as May looks set to discover, there is no majority for any other kind of Brexit, either.
Still, at least there’s one thing to reassure the PM.
This week is her last PMQs before recess, followed by an end-of-parliamentary-term speech to the backbench 1922 Committee. The Guardian reports that Thursday’s meeting is the informal deadline for triggering a vote of confidence in May.
Only four sleeps until (temporary) survival.
