EU27 to offer May a 'carrot and stick' approach to Brexit

The EU27 are planning a “carrot and stick” approach to Brexit at an upcoming summit, offering Theresa May warm words on the Chequers plans to take to the Conservative conference alongside a sharp warning that they need a plan for Northern Ireland within weeks.

Daniel Boffey in Brussels  4 September 2018

© PA The EU27 fear Britain is seeking to push back the
resolution of the Irish border issue into the transition period.

The twin statements from the EU leaders at the meeting in Salzburg later this month would seek to give the British prime minister some evidence of progress in negotiations on the future trade deal as she seeks to fight off the threat of rebelling MPs.

However, under the plans being discussed among the 27, a shot would be fired across May’s bows on the issue of a backstop for Northern Ireland, an issue on which officials and diplomats are becoming increasingly frustrated.

The prime minister committed in December, and again in March, to agree on a plan for avoiding a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

This would come into force if a trade deal or bespoke technological solution that could do the same job was not available by the end of the transition period, on 31 December 2020.

The EU27 fear the British are seeking to push back the resolution of this issue into the transition period, after the UK has left the EU on 29 March 2019.

Tempers have flared in recent negotiations over the issue and member states want to send a clear warning that they are not willing to let the issue remain unresolved.

One EU diplomat said: “The first part will say that the Chequers proposals were welcomed and that we are talking about the future: an unprecedented deal which will be our best effort at an internal market in goods.

“That is all true and it is something for her [May] to have at conference, that she needs. The second statement will be a very stern warning. It is clear that the British game plan is to push this back, but they need to step on it now, and stop playing around.”

Senior EU diplomats and officials admit that the central tenets of the Chequers proposals, involving a common rule book on goods, and an unprecedented customs arrangement, are dead in the water.

However, it is believed that the “zero tariffs, zero quota” offer made by Donald Tusk, the European council president, in March, along with fresh thinking on how to facilitate customs checks to reduce friction at the border, could be developed and packaged as a substantive counter-offer. “There is a lot that can be done to minimise checks,” said an EU diplomat. “What is an internal market in goods? A lot of this is semantics.”

The EU leaders are meeting in the Austrian city on 19 and 20 September. May is likely to have the opportunity to present her thoughts to leaders over dinner on the the first evening, with the leaders then discussing the issues over lunch the following day.

© Getty EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier (R) shakes hands with Britain's Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab during their meeting at the European Commission in Brussels on August 31, 2018. (Photo by Emmanuel DUNAND / AFP) (Photo credit should read EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images)

EU sources said the Brexit plan and the summit itinerary had yet to be signed off, but there was a consensus among the member states that May should be given some help before what is likely to be a fiery Tory conference less than two weeks later.

There had been some hope in Whitehall that the summit would be an opportunity for the EU27 leaders to rethink the red lines handed down to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator.

The government believes the European commission has been too legalistic in its approach, and had hoped the leaders would urge greater flexibility. However, EU officials have insisted this will not happen at Salzburg, with the only thing on offer being a willingness to go as far as possible to maintain existing trade flows.

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