Theresa May vows to take on Eurosceptic Conservatives

Theresa May has vowed to take on Eurosceptic Conservative MPs as they try to derail her Brexit strategy, in a political struggle that could determine Britain’s future in Europe and her position as prime minister.

George Parker in London  4 September 2018

Mrs May convenes her first cabinet on Tuesday since the summer break, after insisting that she is providing the “serious leadership and serious plan” needed to secure a smooth Brexit next March.

But Eurosceptic Tory MPs will also gather to draw up a rival Brexit plan, styled on Canada’s free-trade agreement with the EU, after former foreign secretary and arch Brexiter Boris Johnson claimed that Mrs May’s “white flag” approach would lead to “disaster”.

© Bloomberg Jacob Rees-Mogg

The European Research Group, which counts up to 70 Eurosceptic Conservative MPs as supporters and is led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, intends to publish its vision of a harder Brexit later this month, in a direct challenge to the prime minister’s authority.The proposal we have put forward is one that is negotiable and can carry the support of the House of CommonsTheresa May’s spokesmanMrs May’s so-called Chequers compromise plan, which would keep Britain tied to EU rules for goods and agriculture after Brexit, has been heavily criticised from all sides, but the prime minister is convinced it must form the basis for a deal with the bloc.

© Getty Eurosceptic splits divide the Conservative Party

On Monday, she authorised her spokesman to criticise Mr Johnson, saying that his latest attack on the prime minister’s Brexit strategy, in his weekly column for the Daily Telegraph, contained “no new ideas”.In an attempt by Downing Street to suggest that, unlike Mr Johnson, Mrs May had the gravitas to deliver Brexit, her spokesman added: “She is a serious prime minister and she has put forward serious proposals.”Mrs May’s aides insisted that Mr Johnson’s idea of a free-trade agreement with the EU — loosening most of Britain’s ties with Brussels — would create regulatory disruption to the UK’s European supply chains and create a hard border in Ireland.Opposition to Chequers plan weakens PM

© Getty May holds a Cabinet meeting at Chequers

But the Eurosceptic uprising against her Chequers plan, echoed by some pro-European Tory MPs, who believe it is a “worst of all worlds” compromise, has left Mrs May’s authority and strategy on a precipice.

Even if she can negotiate an exit deal with Brussels in time for a Brexit summit in October or November, she then faces the huge task of persuading the House of Commons to support it in a “meaningful vote”.

Mrs May’s allies admitted that most Labour MPs will oppose any deal and that the prime minister will need the backing of almost all Tories to win the vote. “We’ve got to get support right across the party,” said one.

But Eurosceptic Tory MPs could vote against Mrs May for giving too much ground to Brussels, while some pro-Europeans, including former ministers Nick Boles and Justine Greening, oppose the Chequers plan for leaving Britain as an enfeebled EU rule-taker.

© Getty Nigel Farage: The Brexit Short - how hedge funds
used private polls to make millions

Mr Boles, a close ally of environment secretary Michael Gove, has suggested that Britain should “park” itself in the EU single market as a member of the European Economic Area for a temporary period, before striking a free-trade deal with the bloc.

Mrs May’s allies suspect that Mr Gove is backing the EEA compromise but insist it is a non-starter. “It would mean going into the next election with free movement [of people] and making big budget contributions to Brussels,” said one.

Ms Greening told the BBC that the Chequers plan was “more unpopular than the poll tax was” and there was “no prospect of it getting through parliament”.

© Getty Protestors in Trafalgar Square to oppose the Government's
Poll Tax (Photo by PA Images via Getty Images)

UK faces making further EU concessions

To add to Mrs May’s problems, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper at the weekend that he “strongly opposed” Mrs May’s Chequers plan, adding that her complex dual-tariff customs proposal would involve “insane” bureaucracy.

The prime minister may yet have to make concessions on issues such as customs, EU budget contributions, and preferential free movement arrangements for European citizens, if she is to stand any chance of securing a deal in Brussels.

If she is defeated in the Commons on any Brexit deal, Mrs May would be under pressure to quit as prime minister, but her advisers believe her weakness could ultimately be her strength when the moment of truth arrives.

They argue that if the Commons were to reject her Brexit deal, no other proposal, including the ERG’s “Canada plus” plan, would win the support of MPs either, creating deadlock.

© Getty File photo

Could Brexit be put on hold?

© Shutterstock

In the ensuing chaos, and if Mrs May decided to resign in the middle of it, parliament might be forced to ask Brussels to extend the Article 50 exit process, putting Brexit on hold.

Brexiters might fear that their project could be lost altogether, especially if the only way out of the impasse was a general election or a referendum on the terms of Mrs May’s deal.

Mrs May knows that the Chequers plan is highly unpopular in her party and in Brussels, but it is her best guess at where the centre of the debate lies: the alternative might be no Brexit at all and a descent into internecine Conservative warfare.

“The proposal we have put forward is one that is negotiable and can carry the support of the House of Commons,” said Mrs May’s spokesman. That claim will be tested before the year is out, with momentous consequences.

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