Thursday 17 January 2019

Brexit Pandora's Box about to burst open

She may have saved her skin for now, but Mrs May appears to have no plan B and appears unable to please anyone.


Beth Rigby

Deputy political editor

12:08, UK,Thursday 17 January 2019


In the space of five weeks, Theresa May has faced a vote of no confidence in her leadership and in her government, her flagship Brexit policy has been demolished, any semblance of authority has been torn apart and yet she still limps on.

On Wednesday night all those Tories and DUP MPs who had voted her down on her Brexit deal, backed her government as she won a confidence vote by a majority of 19.
This may be the most divided Conservative party in modern times but for a few hours they managed to club together united in a common cause: their loathing of Jeremy Corbyn.
But it was a fleeting truce, born from a desire of her MPs to avoid a general election - for now - rather than genuine support for Mrs May.
Her victory does nothing to lift the Brexit paralysis that has descended upon her cabinet, her government, her party and parliament.
There was a thumping majority in the House of Commons against her deal, but MPs from all sides of the House of Commons are fighting like ferrets in a sack about what they want instead: A delay to Brexit; a no deal Brexit; a Norway-style softer Brexit that keeps Britain in the customs union; a second referendum.

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Leaving her Brexiteers on one side, MPs across the House of Commons believe Mrs May will have to smudge at least some of her red lines - exiting the customs union and the single market and ending freedom of movement - if she wants to secure a cross-party Brexit deal.
The price of their support will almost certainly be a softer Brexit at best or a second referendum at worst.
Mr Corbyn has already set down a challenge to the prime minister, telling her he will not enter cross-party talks unless she rules out a No Deal Brexit - something he knows will enrage many eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party are all pressing for a second referendum -something which the prime minister has made very clear she cannot countenance.
But many of her ministers acknowledge privately that she will have to trade something if she wants to secure a deal. Labour's price will be - at the very least - a customs union with the EU.
Senior Remainers have implored her around the cabinet table to try to build a consensus that commands a majority in parliament and are now taking those arguments public in defiance of a lame duck PM.
They are speaking out against no deal and speaking up for - perhaps - staying in a customs union with the EU or extending Article 50 to secure a deal.
No. 10 was desperate on Wednesday to keep this Pandora's Box shut on the day of a Confidence Vote in her shaky government. The last thing she needs after such a devastating defeat is for her restive Brexiteers to go completely rogue.
Mrs May's team knows fully well that softening her Brexit by offering opposition MPs and the DUP concessions on the customs union could get a deal over the line, but could prove fatal for her party and her government, provoking a perhaps terminal split in the Conservative party and triggering a general election.
She said on the steps of Downing Street last night that it was time to put the national interest above all else.
And the next few weeks will see if she is truly ready to put her money where her mouth is and, if necessary, disavow her Brexiteers in order to deliver Brexit - whatever the consequences for her and her party.