Thursday, 17 January 2019

Is there a new way out of the Brexit labyrinth? (as at 17 Jan 2019)

With the Brexit deal rejected, and Theresa May safe in post (for now) we are back deep into the Brexit labyrinth.
There are a number of forks in the road and the next turn is crucial as to where we end up. Here are the options and what they mean.

By Jason Farrell, home editor, SKY News

Thursday 17 January 2019

A new deal


The prime minister said it can't be done and so did Brussels but Theresa May must now try to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.
The PM has three working days to confirm the details of her plan B and present it to the house by Monday.
Theresa May in the Commons Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor
Theresa May has three days to come back with a plan. Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor
Many Tory MPs will accept nothing less than a rewrite of the agreement to scrap the controversial backstop arrangement which they see as a trap, binding the UK to the European Union.
If the EU stands firm the PM has no palatable options. It's argued she could tack towards Labour's position of remaining in a Customs Union with the ambition of winning the support of Labour MP's, but she'd lose backing from many of her own.

Parliament to take control

Will the Speaker allow motions to be initiated by MPs?
It would be a revolutionary change to procedure in Westminster, but there's an argument that if you want to chart a route through the parliamentary puzzle you should let MPs map it out.
One idea is to charge the liaison committee with finding a solution. Nick Boles MP admitted that he and two others would try to push through a new law giving this senior panel of MPs responsibility to "come up with its own compromise deal".
But this cross-party group is formed of Remain-supporting Labour MPs such as Yvette Cooper and career Eurosceptics such as Bernard Jenkin, so it is hard to see how they would be any more united than the current Tory cabinet.
Yvette Cooper has called for an urgent update on a decision to release Stephen Mitchell on parole
With remain supporting MP Yvette Cooper on the same committee as Leavers,
it's no more united than the Conservatives
Theresa May could seek out a cross-parliamentary consensus herself. Either way it is likely to steer us towards a softer Brexit.
There may for example be majority support in parliament for a Norway model, staying in the single market and continuing to allow free movement of people.

Second referendum

There is no majority for it in parliament now but if the deadlock continues this may become an option.
It would require extending article 50, delaying Brexit and would lead to whole new set of dilemmas over what question to ask and how to read the result.
Supporters of a "people's vote" are likely to sit things out a bit longer in hope that - after losing a no-confidence vote - pressure will mount on the Labour leadership to give formal backing to the idea.

No deal

The government warned that this is the "default position" if Mrs May's deal is rejected. There have been warnings of food shortages and public disorder if there is no deal.
The EU says that there is no such thing as a "managed no-deal," there would be no transition period and it is opposed is by the vast majority of MPs.
Several MPs including David Davis and Arlene Foster have presented an alternative deal
Several MPs including David Davis and Arlene Foster have presented an alternative deal
It would see the UK facing tariffs on the border and major manufacturers, such as the car UK industry, worry their supply chains would be badly hit. It is also predicted the tariffs would translate to price rise for consumers.

But some Brexiteers see this as the most viable escape route allowing the UK to negotiate other international trade arrangements outside of the EU and end payments to the European Union.
Whatever the route, be it via renegotiation, parliamentary compromise, or a second referendum, there are only three possible outcomes. A new deal, no deal or no Brexit.