23 June 2016 • 6:23am
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| Vote leave |
The Queen, quite correctly, has
stayed out of the EU referendum debate; but she has reportedly been
asking dinner guests to provide three good reasons why the United
Kingdom should remain a member. On the final day of campaigning
yesterday, her Prime Minister proffered his reply: we would, he said, be
stronger, safer and better off “in a reformed European Union”.
If today’s vote was really about staying in a reformed EU then that might be an adequate answer. But few people believe that the new terms David Cameron negotiated represent a better deal for Britain, nor did they mark any change to the way the organisation functions. Not even the Remain side has made much of the threadbare package that the Prime Minister secured after weeks of talks and a stamina-sapping summit meeting in Brussels in February.
True, some senior EU politicians have signalled that perhaps the institution does need to address the growing disenchantment of people across the continent; but they have done nothing about it – not even faced with the existential threat of a Brexit. In other words, the option of staying in a reformed EU is not available today. We are being invited to remain in something that is impervious to demands for change. Perhaps a British vote to leave will shock the European elites out of their complacency. But a vote to stay will merely encourage their centralising ambitions.
If today’s vote was really about staying in a reformed EU then that might be an adequate answer. But few people believe that the new terms David Cameron negotiated represent a better deal for Britain, nor did they mark any change to the way the organisation functions. Not even the Remain side has made much of the threadbare package that the Prime Minister secured after weeks of talks and a stamina-sapping summit meeting in Brussels in February.
True, some senior EU politicians have signalled that perhaps the institution does need to address the growing disenchantment of people across the continent; but they have done nothing about it – not even faced with the existential threat of a Brexit. In other words, the option of staying in a reformed EU is not available today. We are being invited to remain in something that is impervious to demands for change. Perhaps a British vote to leave will shock the European elites out of their complacency. But a vote to stay will merely encourage their centralising ambitions.
For what they are worth, the
final opinion polls suggest a close contest, with Remain the slight
favourite to win. It is hardly surprising that people are reluctant to
break with the EU – not because they think the UK cannot stand alone but
because they are frightened by the prospect. For weeks, the country has
been subjected to an unremitting bombardment of threats and warnings
that would make any rational person concerned for their well-being think
twice.
Yet what do these threats entail? We are told that there will be a stock-market crash and the pound will fall; businesses will lay off workers; trade will dry up; Britain will be isolated, insecure and less prosperous. Why this should be so is not clear. As a German industry boss said yesterday, Europe would be foolish to get involved in a trade war with Britain when it is the principal market for many of their goods.
Yet what do these threats entail? We are told that there will be a stock-market crash and the pound will fall; businesses will lay off workers; trade will dry up; Britain will be isolated, insecure and less prosperous. Why this should be so is not clear. As a German industry boss said yesterday, Europe would be foolish to get involved in a trade war with Britain when it is the principal market for many of their goods.
The biggest uncertainty of a
Brexit concerns the pre-eminence of the City of London. There are fears
that this could be impaired if non-EU finance houses relocate to
continental Europe because the City loses automatic passporting rights.
It is impossible to say whether some will leave; but with its unrivalled
financial support networks, London will remain an important base.
For good or ill, the issue of immigration has been to the fore during the campaign. Latterly, the Leave camp has conceded that reducing the numbers coming to the UK will not be easy and may not even be desirable. But it will be impossible if Britain remains in the EU, because of the free movement of its citizens. Mr Cameron has been adamant that Turkey, a country of 75 million people, will not be joining the EU in the foreseeable future – a view that has infuriated the government in Ankara and was even contradicted by Sir John Major, the former prime minister with whom he campaigned yesterday.
For good or ill, the issue of immigration has been to the fore during the campaign. Latterly, the Leave camp has conceded that reducing the numbers coming to the UK will not be easy and may not even be desirable. But it will be impossible if Britain remains in the EU, because of the free movement of its citizens. Mr Cameron has been adamant that Turkey, a country of 75 million people, will not be joining the EU in the foreseeable future – a view that has infuriated the government in Ankara and was even contradicted by Sir John Major, the former prime minister with whom he campaigned yesterday.
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Mr Cameron continues to vow to
reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands, despite failing to meet
earlier pledges. This simply encourages a belief among voters that
politicians promise what they know they cannot deliver, an example of
the democratic disconnect that is fuelling cynicism and disillusionment
with political institutions and traditional parties across the
continent.
Voters going to the polls today who think nothing will change much if we leave, so why risk it, must consider where the EU is going next. Mr Cameron is planning to press Brussels to think again about its free movement policy but why should they? Once we have decided to stay, the rest of the EU will expect British cavilling to end.
Above all, this campaign has exposed an important truth: the country is divided over membership of the EU and yet not only has this antipathy never been reflected in parliament, it has been derided as some fringe eccentricity rather than the view of possibly half the electorate. No mainstream party, other than Labour in 1983, has offered the country the chance to vote into office a government that was not committed to staying in.
Mr Cameron was right, therefore, to say the time was long overdue for the British people to have a say, even if everyone knows it would not be taking place at all but for the threat posed by Ukip. Unlike at a general election, where voters in safe seats often feel powerless to challenge the status quo, in a referendum every vote counts, so as many people as possible must use theirs. The arguments are over. Now the country must choose.
Voters going to the polls today who think nothing will change much if we leave, so why risk it, must consider where the EU is going next. Mr Cameron is planning to press Brussels to think again about its free movement policy but why should they? Once we have decided to stay, the rest of the EU will expect British cavilling to end.
Above all, this campaign has exposed an important truth: the country is divided over membership of the EU and yet not only has this antipathy never been reflected in parliament, it has been derided as some fringe eccentricity rather than the view of possibly half the electorate. No mainstream party, other than Labour in 1983, has offered the country the chance to vote into office a government that was not committed to staying in.
Mr Cameron was right, therefore, to say the time was long overdue for the British people to have a say, even if everyone knows it would not be taking place at all but for the threat posed by Ukip. Unlike at a general election, where voters in safe seats often feel powerless to challenge the status quo, in a referendum every vote counts, so as many people as possible must use theirs. The arguments are over. Now the country must choose.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/06/23/britain-decides-vote-leave-today-to-make-this-country-even-great/
