Avatar
While financial Passporting rights are desirable and even important I would not describe them as crucial (decisive or critical). Here is an example of why.
The Council (top management board) of Lloyd's of London was persuaded to authorise a statement before the referendum to support membership of the EU. It turns out that Lloyd's does more insurance business with the State of Florida than it does with Europe. After 43 years of the EEC/EC/EU and 20 years of the Single Market there is still no free access and Lloyd's gets only about 4% of its insurance income from Europe.
Without a free trade deal Lloyd's gets about 40% of its business from the US. It gets about 10% from Europe which would not be affected by passporting rights or any deal with the EU.
Banking has some similar aspects - London based banks do not only or even mainly earn their international income from the EU. Much of what the City does does not need to be traded in the overseas territory.
I do not deny that we should get as wide access as possible but I suggest that access for professional services would be more impirtant that passporting rights.
Passporting rights do not go one way, of course. Many EU insurers and banks operate in London that way and they would also want to contionue to do so. They do not operate in London because tyhey like the transport system, the over crouding or the weather. It is the depth and range of relevant skills here, the honesty of our commercial courts and our generally high business ethics. Look around the City: it is not just EU banks and insurers who are there but mant also from the US, Canada, Brazil - in fact most nations outside the EU are represented.