Friday, 13 December 2019

How did Boris Johnson achieve his landslide victory? A visual guide

Johnson’s gamble on a ‘Brexit election’ paid off, with big gains in Labour’s leave-voting heartlands


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/13/boris-johnson-achieves-landslide-victory-visual-guide

The Conservative party gained 66 seats to secure its biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory. Boris Johnson’s party cemented its lead in many of its existing seats and made gains in traditional Labour heartlands across the north. Brexit dominated the campaign, bringing the party a thumping win across England and handing Johnson control of Westminster with 365 seats.

The Conservatives made key gains in Labour’s ‘red wall’

The Conservatives eroded the band of traditionally Labour-held seats in constituencies stretching from North Wales to Grimsby and further to the north.
Seats such as the Vale of Clywd1Bishop Auckland2Redcar3 and Great Grimsby4turned from Labour to Conservative. The shift has recast the political geography of England and may change the face of the Conservative party.
Labour’s share of the vote in its traditional constituencies crumbled. The party’s only gain across the country on its 2017 result was in Putney.

The Tories made this election about Brexit and won

Brexit loomed large in voters’ minds, swinging traditional Labour constituencies to the Conservatives. Areas which voted heavily to leave the EU had more votes for the Conservatives compared with 2017. Boston and Skegness1Castle Point2, Thurrock and Ashfield all swung for the Conservatives.

The Brexit party hurt Labour in their leave-voting seats

Labour lost 10 of its 20 strongest leave-voting seats to the Conservatives and its majority shrank considerably in the seats it managed to hold. In Doncaster North1, which voted 72% to leave in the EU referendum, Labour saw its 33-point lead over the Tories drop to just six points.
The Brexit party did not win any of these target seats, but it made significant advances in traditional Labour strongholds. In Barnsley Central2, the Brexit party won 30% of the vote and Labour lost 24 points compared with 2017.

The Conservatives only lost two of their 20 most marginal seats from 2017

The Brexit party’s decision not to stand in Tory-defended seats helped the Conservatives consolidate the leave vote in those areas. Out of their top 20 most marginal defended seats, they only lost two in remain-leaning Richmond Park and Stirling.
Everywhere else, the Labour vote share transferred directly to the Conservatives, with swings of over 14% in Thurrock, Stoke-on-Trent South1 and Mansfield2. The Conservatives also strengthened their grip on many former Labour areas, a change that will redraw Britain’s political landscape.

The Conservatives gained significant support outside of London and Scotland

The Conservatives gained support in most corners of England and Wales, with a huge 19% increase in Thurrock1in the south-east – their biggest increase of the election. They also performed well in leave-voting constituencies in the Midlands, such as Walsall North2 and Cannock Chase3.
It was a tough night for Labour as they struggled to pick up support across the country. Bradford West4 was their biggest vote share increase, where incumbent Naz Shah gained 11 percentage points.

A big night for the SNP had them gain 14 of their target seats

A buoyant Nicola Sturgeon has declared her party’s historic win in Scotland as “a renewed, refreshed and strengthened mandate” for a fresh independence vote after winning 47 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats.
The SNP took seats from both main parties, with gains from Labour in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill1 and East Lothian, and gains from the Conservatives in Gordon2 and Aberdeen South.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/13/boris-johnson-achieves-landslide-victory-visual-guide