Boris Johnson holds a double-digit lead in opinion polls ahead of a crucial vote to decide Brexit’s fate
LONDON—British Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a double-digit lead in opinion polls as Britain prepares to vote Thursday in a crucial general election that will determine Brexit’s fate.
If reflected in the election, the lead would be enough to give him a comfortable majority—though a recent narrowing of the lead reflected in some polls is enough to keep the outcome uncertain.
The bitterly fought election campaign bookends more than three years of political stalemate over how—or even if—the U.K. should quit the European Union. If Mr. Johnson’s Conservative Party wins enough votes to form a majority in Parliament it will open the way for the U.K. to leave the EU on Jan. 31.
If Mr. Johnson fails to gain a majority, a combination of opposition parties likely led by the Labour Party could come to power and call for another referendum on Brexit, further extending the uncertainty of Britain’s split with its biggest trade partner.
The pound has already rallied against the dollar in recent days in anticipation of a comfortable Conservative victory but with Brexit scrambling traditional party allegiances and pollsters warning that many voters are still undecided, the election could yet slip away from Mr. Johnson.
On Friday, Mr. Johnson dueled with Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn during a televised debate but neither managed to land a convincing blow on the other. “The biggest thing we need to get right is Brexit,” Mr. Johnson said on Sunday. “That is the thing that has been hanging over us the last three years.”
The five-week campaign has been a grinding affair punctuated by a terrorist attack in London, floods in northern England and a welter of budget giveaways aimed at luring an increasingly exasperated electorate. Not since the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 have Britons faced a choice between two more contrasting candidates.
Mr. Johnson, a posh, buccaneering former journalist, repeats the slogan “Get Brexit Done,” promising he will take the U.K. out of the EU, while loosening the government’s purse strings and spending more on health and policing.
Mr. Corbyn, a low key, bearded socialist, promises another Brexit referendum but has highlighted his party’s plans to oversee a radical expansion of the government’s role in the economy, that includes spending hundreds of billions of dollars on projects including free internet for all.
The country is roughly split on whether Brexit should happen. But Mr. Johnson has an advantage over his opponents: He has largely united the pro-Brexit vote behind his Conservative Party. Meanwhile, the anti-Brexit vote is still divided between Labour and a cluster of smaller parties including the Liberal Democrats.
Ahead of the vote, analysts are closely watching to see if more Liberal Democrat supporters defect to Labour, or for signs that anti-Brexit voters will tactically cast their ballots to stop the Conservatives. Labour’s vote share stands at 32% versus 42% for the Conservatives, according to a poll of polls by Britain Elects.
For Mr. Johnson, a majority is essential. The Conservatives have no obvious allies in parliament to form a coalition with. To break a political deadlock that has lingered since the 2016 EU referendum, Mr. Johnson must pack the House of Commons with loyal pro-Brexit lawmakers who will vote through the divorce deal he negotiated with the EU.
To this end he has toured the country deploying a boisterous style that has previously enabled him to win every election he has taken part in since 1997.
His strategy: a replay of the 2016 Brexit “Vote Leave” campaign, sweeping up all those who backed Brexit. That means targeting blue-collar districts that support Brexit but haven’t voted Conservative in years, including areas like Dudley, a market town in central England, with high numbers of unemployed people and euroskeptics.
There are signs it is working. Della Walker, a 43-year-old Labour supporter in Dudley, says many of her friends say they will vote Conservative. “It just blows my head,” she says. “Some of them just bang on about Brexit.” On Sunday Mr. Johnson said his government would curb immigration, a key refrain from the Brexit vote.
Meanwhile, Mr. Corbyn’s approval ratings have languished amid long-running allegations that he failed to tackle anti-Semitism in his party, something the party denies.
Labour’s fuzzy policy on Brexit could further hamstring the party. Mr. Corbyn says he would renegotiate Mr. Johnson’s divorce deal with the EU and put it to a referendum alongside the option to stay in the EU. Mr. Corbyn says he will stay neutral on the issue ahead of a potential second referendum, leaving voters in the dark about whether Labour will promote Brexit or not. He hopes voters will instead focus on his policies to curb free-market excess, many of which are popular with voters.
The election won’t bring closure to the political upheaval in Britain. Even if Mr. Johnson wins, the uncertainty over the Brexit saga won’t end. Mr. Johnson’s divorce deal covers payments owed to the EU, citizens’ rights and an arrangement to avoid a border on the island of Ireland as Britain unwinds a 45-year economic partnership with the bloc.
If the Conservatives win, attention will then turn to the next chapter of the divorce: negotiating the future relationship with the EU. After Jan. 31, the U.K. will maintain relations with the EU until at least the end of 2020 as it negotiates trade and other ties to the bloc.
Mr. Johnson says that he will get a trade deal by then or leave without one if he doesn’t. He has ruled out extending talks—even though many trade experts say that negotiating such a complex deal will be very challenging in such a short time.
His withdrawal deal stipulates that if the U.K. wants to extend the transition period beyond the end of next year—until at the latest the end of 2022—he must give notice to the EU by the end of June. As a result, by midyear, the political debate could shift back to a familiar theme: whether the U.K. will crash out of the EU without a trade deal just after Christmas.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/britain-gears-up-for-its-most-divisive-election-in-decades-11575814301