Thu 17 Oct 2019 18.52 BST
Last modified on Thu 17 Oct 2019 21.48 BST
Simon Jenkins
‘Boris Johnson has choked on a dozen promises, but he has eliminated the notorious backstop.’ Photograph: Julien Warnand/AP
Here we go again. The bloody torso that is Brexit will this weekend dump itself in the torture chamber of the House of Commons. MPs will be asked to approve – in some fashion or other – the Brexit deal reached by Boris Johnson in Brussels. It is now surely clear that the deal comes as close as is feasible to a workable withdrawal from the EU, given the limitations set by the Commons since 2016. It also sets a framework for something quite separate, Britain’s long-term relationship with the EU, which is yet to be negotiated in detail.
Johnson won the Tory leadership by creating a problem for which there was by definition no solution. He would not just leave the EU but would replace its customs union with a “frictionless” border in Ireland. There could be no such border, and Britain had no economic interest in having one. All the current chaos ensues from that. Despite his bluster, he has tried to avoid the greater lunacy of no deal. Faced with the impossibility of customs barriers, he has conceded a virtual border down the Irish Sea, regulatory alignment and a crazily bureaucratic scheme of tariff rebates. He is rumoured to have made concessions to die-hard unionists on abortion and subsidies. He has choked on a dozen promises, but he has eliminated the notorious backstop. In return, he has granted Belfast a veto on future trade deals.
Johnson has deployed all his political charm to win over Ireland’s Leo Varadkar and his own last-ditchers. The result is something of a coup. His deal is not permanent. It covers a withdrawal and a “standstill” transition, but it must surely be last call for the UK’s orderly departure from the EU, give or take some weeks of tidying up. A deal is done and on offer.
And yet. At the last minute, the Democratic Unionist party has punched Johnson in the stomach. It is refusing to accept the deal, thus possibly denying him a Commons majority. This is despite opinion in the region strongly supporting continued trade links with the Republic. It means the DUP is on the brink of doing what Sinn Féin never achieved: turning majority opinion in the region in favour of reunification. The party is now demanding a specific unionists’ veto in the Belfast assembly – not just an overall majority – on any new cross-border customs arrangement.
FacebookTwitterPinterest The DUP’s Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds: ‘The party is now demanding a specific Unionists’ veto in the Belfast assembly.’ Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images
It beggars belief that the United Kingdom parliament can allow itself to be held to ransom by such absurdities. The way forward is for MPs from all other parties to back the deal, but it also beggars belief that elected politicians appear ready to reject it. These politicians voted for the Brexit referendum and voted to activate article 50. Yet Jeremy Corbyn has declared that Labour intends to support the DUP’s rejectionism. His claim that the deal “endangers the rights and protections of British workers” is hooey. He just wants to embarrass Johnson.
If the DUP is right, and the deal risks Northern Ireland being drawn ever closer to the Republic, that is surely something Labour should welcome, not impede. Corbyn’s reluctant backing for another referendum is more opaque. Whether the government might accept such an amendment in return for getting Labour votes on Saturday is unknown, though the gamble could be worth it. Polls show that the public is so fed up with Brexit it would probably vote in a second referendum for any deal, rather than no deal or remain. Otherwise Labour’s position, as set out last night by Keir Starmer, is all over the shop. It mostly consists of objections to the political statement, which is for future negotiation and remains all to play for. Either way, Corbyn should see electoral advantage in allowing Johnson his moment of glory, clearing the decks of Brexit and aiming for an early general election.
The Liberal Democrats’ opposition to the deal is equally bizarre. Rejecting it would let Johnson present himself as the only “orderly” Brexiter in sight, the only one who sought to honour the will of the people. The Lib Dems would surrender their best opportunity in a generation of supplanting Labour as the responsible party of the left. The same goes for the Scottish Nationalists. Brexit has led to a surge in support for independence, but the SNP needs to solidify support at the polls, not stay party to this interminable squabble south of the border. Everyone needs Brexit off the table.
Johnson has made manifold errors. Alienating 21 Tory MPs was crass. They should be helping him get MPs from across the parties behind the deal, freeing him from the DUP. Nor should he have fixated on the customs union, but rather relegated it to the transition period. It left the Northern Irish trap gaping to catch him, as it did Theresa May. The region’s sectarianism returns time and again to haunt British politics. On the back of Brexit, it may yet complete the break-up of a no longer “united” kingdom.
The DUP should not decide who rules Britain. MPs should vote for Johnson’s deal, and those who dislike its details should save their fight for the transition. Exit now would at last draw the Brexit poison from daily politics. It would lift the threat of no deal, and hopefully open the door to a calmer negotiation of Britain’s European future. It is time, surely, to end this agony.
• Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-deal-mps-dup-brexit-britain
