Thursday 31 October 2019

The Brexit Party’s dilemma

With parties gearing up to release their candidate lists and slogans (the Lib Dems’ release theirs today, whoopee) election fever has dipped somewhat.

THE BREXIT PARTY’S DILEMMA

 31 October 2019
However, some big moves look to be incoming following the FT’s scoop last night that the Brexit Party are considering pulling their candidates the best possible chance of securing a majority.
Brexit Party candidates received the following message yesterday morning: “Important. Please all go DARK on social media. DO NOT respond to any questions about where we [are] standing, what the strategy or plan is from now on. Things will be made clear . . . very soon.”
The date being mooted is November the 12th, exactly a month before polling day.
“I’ve said nothing about it to anybody and frankly there’s no rush,” Nigel Farage told the Telegraph “I’m working it through at the moment and will announce it in good time.”
Good strategy, Farage is in a tricky situation. Everything could go badly wrong if the Tories don’t take Leave-voting Labour marginals to make up for losses to the Lib Dems and the SNP in Scotland and the collapse in relations with the DUP
This is going to be a topsy-turvy election. Labour reached 50% or more of the vote share in seats that voted 65% or more in favour of Brexit. Those voters have been completely sold out. Surely there’s plundering to be done for a common-sense party that aren’t the Conservatives.
“The reality on the ground is that for Boris Johnson to obtain a working majority he must not only gain Conservative seats, but also see the party closest to him suffer a reduction in number,” writes Leave.EU’s former head of press, Brian Monteith, now a Brexit Party MEP for Brexit Central.  
“I know there are many, many Labour voters who will never vote Conservative,” he adds. They are not backwards at coming forward to tell me this. They will, however, consider however voting for the Brexit Party and in May they turned out in huge numbers to do so.
He goes onto map out the Labour heartlands, which extend far and wide, where Nigel can land punishing blows. The scope is much greater than the twenty or so seats being mooted by commentators.
But overturning those majorities isn’t out of the question. Leave voters are faced with Jeremy Corbyn who has been found out over Brexit. Furthermore, Boris is coming in with a far more left-friendly agenda. The Tory manifesto will not be one of sweeping tax cuts and pledges to balance the books (not that we’re against such a thing) instead public services, particularly the NHS and the Police will be prioritised.
Downing Street will therefore be thrilled to learn that Boris is more trusted over the NHS than Corbyn. This is a hammer blow for Corbyn, who is planning to weaponise the NHS issue. The Mirror has also gone AWOL with their front page headline claiming Boris and Trump are plotting to sell-off the NHS. The public are sick and tired of these scare-stories, and simply aren’t going to believe them.
Labour are preparing for a general election. Jeremy Corbyn has said “This election is a once-in-a-generation chance to transform our country, take on the vested interests holding people back and ensure that no community is left behind.” Early signs are Labour plan to focus on every issue except Brexit, seemingly no nearer to having a clear policy. Corbyn’s message is not grounded in reality. His bizarre attacks on rich individuals will not resonate with large swathes of the general public, who are focused on ensuring the Brexit they voted for it delivered.
In other news, at long last, today is John Bercow’s last day in the position of Speaker.
The little man’s ten-year reign has been marred by grandstanding of absolutely epic proportions culminating in his personal crusade to disrupt Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Such has been wholly negative impact of his tenure, the position of Speaker may never return to its neutral position of old.
Boris yesterday delivered a speech to Bercow, gently mocking him for “the longest retirement since Frank Sinatra” following the Speaker’s painfully long speech at his last PMQ’s as Chair. Brexiteers can only hope the next Speaker doesn’t have such an obvious agenda.   



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